主权信用评级的决定因素:印度尼西亚及其邻国1998-2016

Akhmad Solikin, Gerry Michel
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究的目的是研究1998-2016年期间印度尼西亚及其邻国主权信用评级的决定因素。利用二手数据,运用有序概率法进行分析,发现每个信用评级机构对其发布的信用评级都有自己的影响变量。总体而言,对于印尼及其周边国家而言,财政平衡、经常账户赤字与GDP、自由指数、人均GDP之间存在显著正相关关系;而与gdp负相关的显著变量是外债和实际汇率。国内储蓄总额占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例从两方面影响着信用评级。有趣的是,通货膨胀并不影响信用评级。印尼和邻国政府可以利用这些信息来管理宏观经济指标,以便从信用评级机构获得有利的评级。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Determinants of Sovereign Credit Ratings: Indonesia and Its Neighborhood Countries 1998-2016
The aim of this research is to study the determinants of sovereign credit ratings of Indonesia andits neighborhood countries in the period of 1998-2016. Using secondary data and analyzed usingordered probit, it is found that every credit rating agency has its own variables influencing to itspublished credit ratings.In general, for Indonesia and its neighborhood countries, the variables withsignificant and positive relationship are fiscal balance and current account deficit to GDP, freedomindex, and GDP per capita; while the variables with significant and negative relationship are externaldebt to GNI and real exchange rate. Gross domestic savings to GDP influences credit ratings inboth ways. Interestingly, inflation does not affect the credit ratings. Indonesia and neighborhoodgovernments could use this information to manage their macroeconomic indicators in order to getfavorable ratings from credit rating agencies.
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