移动平均线、布林带和相对强弱指数技术分析对lq45指数中上市公司股票价格的准确性检验

Dipta Amelia Daniswara, Hendro Widjanarko, Khoirul Hikmah
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在检验并提供实证证据,证明移动平均线、布林带和相对强弱指数技术分析指标在预测股价走势方向上的准确性。本研究的重点是代表印尼股市的股票,即2021年2月至2021年7月期间的LQ45股指。数据通过tradingview.com平台收集。为了检验研究假设,采用Mann-Whitney非参数检验对预测结果与实际股价走势的统计差异进行检验。本研究结果发现,三个指标对股价变动方向的预测与实际价格之间没有差异,这意味着三个指标是准确的。从信号数、平均收益率、样本观测值三个指标的表现分析比较结果可以看出,相对强度指标相对于其他两个指标具有更优的准确率表现。指标。本文的研究结果可为资本市场投资者在选择技术分析方法时提供参考,帮助他们做出更合适的投资决策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
THE ACCURACY TEST OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF MOVING AVERAGE, BOLLINGER BANDS, AND RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX ON STOCK PRICES OF COMPANIES LISTED IN INDEX LQ45
This study aims to test and provide empirical evidence of the accuracy of the technical analysis indicators Moving Average, Bollinger Bands, and Relative Strength Index in predicting the direction of stock price movements. This research focuses on stocks that represent the Indonesian stock Market, namely the LQ45 stock index for the period February 2021 - July 2021. Data were collected through the tradingview.com platform. To test the research hypothesis, the statistical differences between the predictions and the reality of stock price movement were tested using Mann-Whitney non-parametric test. The results of this study found that there was no difference between the predictions of the direction of stock price movements produced by the three indicators and the actual prices, which means that the three indicators are accurate. From the results of the analysis and comparison of the performance of the three indicators from the number of signals, the average rate of return, and the sample observations, it can be concluded that the Relative Strength Index indicator has a more optimal accuracy performance compared to the other two indicators. indicator. The results of this study can be used as a reference for capital market investors in choosing technical analysis methods that can help make more appropriate investment decisions.
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