部署包含专家判断的需求预测模型的程序

Francielly Hedler Staudt, M. B. Gonçalves, C. Rodriguez
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引用次数: 5

摘要

当营销信息被专家很好地解释并纳入定量预测时,预测的准确性可能会提高。然而,人类的判断可能会给预测带来偏差。避免这些偏差的一种方法是使用结构化调整方法。本文提出了一个程序,以帮助企业实施需求预测系统与统计预测的判断调整。以一个小公司为例,说明了该程序的实施情况。结果表明,判断调整使定量预测精度平均提高了5%。结果还表明,在一个时间序列中,变异性最大的产品具有最好的调整性能,并且最好的结果来自较大的调整。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Procedimento para implantar um modelo de previsão de demanda com incorporação de julgamento de especialistas
When marketing information is well interpreted and incorporated into a quantitative forecast by an expert, forecast accuracy may be enhanced. However, human judgment might introduce biases into the forecast. One way to avoid these biases is to use structured adjustment approaches. This article presents a procedure to help companies implement a demand forecasting system with a judgmental adjustment of statistical forecasts. The use of this procedure in a small company shows its implementation. The results demonstrated that judgmental adjustments improved quantitative forecast accuracy by an average of 5%. The results also showed that the product with the greatest variability in a time series had the best adjustment performance and that the best outcomes came from the larger adjustments.
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