基于copula的股票与石油市场动态非线性相关性研究

He Xin, Zhang Guofu
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摘要

本文利用中国、巴西、印度、美国、德国、法国、英国和日本的WTI原油现货价格和股票价格指数数据集,通过非参数多变点算法得到了整个样本范围的5个子区间。通过copula模型分析了原油现货价格与股票价格指数之间的相关性,并在模拟的基础上计算了每个子区间的VaR和ES值。揭示了金融危机时期石油现货价格与股票价格指数之间存在不对称的尾部依赖关系。原油现货价格和股票价格指数的VaR值和ES值呈不规则波动。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Dynamic Nonlinear Correlation Studies on Stock and Oil Market Based onCopula
Employing the dataset of WTI oil spot price and stock price index in ChinaBrazil, India, US, German, France, UK and Japan, this paper obtains five subinterval of whole sample range through a nonparametric multiple change point algorithms. Furthermore, it analyses dependence between oil spot price and stock price index through copula model and computes the value of VaR and ES based on simulation for every subinterval. It reveals that dependence between oil spot price and stock price index during financial crisis and there is asymmetric tail dependence. The value of VaR and ES of t oil spot price and stock price index shows irregular fluctuation.
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