自雇、广义货币、利差及其对储蓄的影响:以肯尼亚为例

Fcpa Owen Koimburi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究利用IBM SPSS 26的多元回归模型,调查了2004年至2018年肯尼亚个体经营、货币政策和利率息差与国民储蓄总额之间的关系。描述性统计采用自回归分布滞后法(ARDL)和格兰杰因果关系法对预测变量和结果变量进行了线性相关分析,进一步分析发现三个变量中广义货币供应量对结果方差的贡献最大,为0.762。因此,研究得出三个预测变量与结果变量之间存在显著的相关性,该模型可以用于预测目的。该文件建议国家政府减轻个体户的负担,以便他们能够最大限度地提高在该部门的收入,特别是作为中小企业的所有者。此外,应鼓励银行推出更多创新储蓄产品。这将有助于该国建立一种本地发达的储蓄文化,从而支持全国发达的资本基础。该文件建议政府尽量减少对外借款,以便将更多资源用于私营部门,帮助它们增加国家财富和创造就业机会,同时鼓励银行追求适度的利差。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Self-employment, Broad Money, Interest Rates Spread and Their Impact on Savings: The Case for Kenya
: This study investigated the relationship between Self-employment, Monetary policy, and Interest rates spread and the Gross national savings in Kenya between 2004 and 2018using Multiple regression model on IBM SPSS 26. The descriptive statistics showed a linear correlation between predictor and outcome variables using Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) and Granger Causality method, further analysis revealed that of the three variables Broad Money Supply contributed most to the variance of the outcome at .762. The study therefore concludes there is a significant correlation between the three predictor variables and the outcome variable, and the model can be used for prediction purpose for forecasting. The paper recommends that the National Government eases the burden of the self-employed people in order that they may maximize their earnings in that sector especially as the owners of SMEs. Also, banks should be encouraged to have more innovative savings products. This will help the country have a locally developed savings culture that would support a nationally developed capital base. The paper recommends Government minimizes external borrowing so that more resources are directed to the private sector to help them grow the national wealth and create employment, while Banks be encouraged to pursue a modest interest rates spread.
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