FACTORS AFFECTING THE INTENTION TO STRENGTHEN PROTECTION AGAINST INFECTION BASED ON INFORMATION ABOUT ITS PREDICTED SPREAD—A CASE STUDY OF COVID-19—

Since the pandemic of COVID-19, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for monitoring and predicting spread of infectious diseases has been intensively studied and its feasibility has been evaluated all over the world. The WBE has a potential to reduce the number of infections by early warning of its spread to enhance countermeasures at both public (e.g. lock-down and vaccination campaign) and individual (e.g. avoiding closed spaces, crowded places and close contact settings) levels. In this paper, to clarify the factors affecting the individual intentions to strengthen protection against infection based on information about its spread predicted by the WBE, questionnaire surveys were conducted for residents of Sendai and Osaka cities, Japan and the obtained data were analyzed by t-tests and the covariance structure model. As a result, the group that was provided with information on the predicted spread of infection, showing the increase of infections in the next week, was generally more willing to strengthen protection measures against COVID-19 than the group that was provided with the number of infections newly reported at the time of the survey. It was also revealed that those with high levels of trust in provided information and recommended countermeasures had high respect for social norms and firm intention to strengthen protection measures both directly and indirectly. In particular, if neither they nor their families are at a high risk of infection, reliable information on COVID-19 spread was suggested to enhance receivers' respects for social norms and consequently motivate their intentions to strengthen protection measures.Alternate :抄録　下水モニタリングによる感染拡大予測情報の発信サイトが宮城県仙台市にて運用されている．COVID-19での活用を想定し，同情報に基づく感染対策強化意思に影響を与える要因を明らかにするため，仙台市と大阪市の住民を対象にアンケート調査を実施し，平均値の差の検定および共分散構造分析を実施した．　その結果，感染拡大予測情報を提示された集団は概ね調査実施時点での新規感染者数を提示された集団よりもCOVID-19の感染対策強化意思が強いことが明らかとなった．また，情報・対策を信頼している人は社会的規範意識が高く，直接的および間接的に対策強化意思が強いことも明らかになった．特に，回答者自身もしくは同居者が高リスクではない場合，信頼性の高い情報は社会的規範意識を高め，対策強化意思の向上に繋がることが示唆された．