PİYASA VOLATİLİTESİNİN KONUT KREDİ HACMİNE ETKİSİ: TÜRK BANKACILIK SEKTÖRÜNE İLİŞKİN BİR UYGULAMA

Housing loans, which are the most important source of the housing finance market in Turkey, have deve-loped in recent years. The most important variable affecting the development of housing loans is the housing loan cost, in other words, housing loans interest rates. On the other hand, there is a relationship between housing loan volume and interest rate volatility regardless of the interest rate level. In this study, we aimed to analyse the relationship between the volume of housing loans in the Turkish banking sector and interest rate volatility using econometric methods. For this purpose, the simultaneous equation model estimated by the “Three-Stage Least Squares” (3SLS) method was used. We aimed to contribute to the literature by analyzing the relationship between the housing loans of Turkish banking sector and market interest rate volatility. It has benefited from the long-term co-integration approach for the 3SLS method estimation of the non-stationary time series for housing loan, income, inflation and interest rate volatility in the model. As a result of the analysis, we found that market volatility has a significant impact on the mortgage loan volume. In addition, it has been evaluated that this situation may have resulted from the fact that savers tend to use higher-yielding instruments during periods when interest rates are generally negative.