伊朗转向东方:对易卜拉欣·莱希政府高加索和中亚政策的评价

Başaran Ayar
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摘要

本文考察了伊朗新政府易卜拉欣·莱希的高加索和中亚政策。很明显,欧亚地区已经成为伊朗外交的重点,总统莱希在执政的第一年就展示了这些变化。作者用比较的方法概述了与上届政府政策的不同之处。研究方法以建构主义国际关系学派的理论为基础,侧重于意识形态层面和决策过程中行为者的分析。研究的目的是研究国际政治的变化,这些变化已经使新政府遵循以欧亚政策为重点的新路线。作者认为,这种转变的原因是:1)德黑兰愿意重新考虑核处理作为其外交政策核心的核心作用;2)国内的经济危机迫使伊朗的政客们寻找替代市场和合作伙伴;3)摆脱国际孤立的愿望,以及欧亚双边和政府间关系的重要性;4)最近高加索和阿富汗发生的事件使德黑兰对威胁的看法发生了变化。作者认为,这些因素的综合影响使莱希政府将欧亚大陆视为伊朗外交政策的重点,如果这种趋势继续下去,我们将在未来看到一种更加平衡的方法,而不像以前那样,与西方的关系和中东事件定义了伊朗政策的中心路线。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Iran’s turn to the East: assessment of the Caucasian and Central-Asian policy of Ebrahim Raisi’s administration
The article considers the Caucasian and Central-Asian policy of the new administration of Ebrahim Raisi in Iran. It’s already clear that the Eurasian region has become a priority of Iran’s diplomacy, and President Raisi has been demonstrating these changes during the first year at the helm. The author uses comparative methodology to outline the differences from the previous administration’s policy. The research methodology is based on the theory of the constructivist school of international relations which focuses on the ideological level and analysis of actors during the decision-making process. The purpose of the research is to study the changes in international politics which have already made the new administration follow the new approach focusing on the Eurasian policy.  The author believes that the reasons for such a transformation are: 1) Tehran’s will to reconsider the central role of nuclear treatments as a core of its foreign policy; 2) the economic crisis in the country which makes Iran’s politicians search for alternative markets and partners; 3) an aspiration to escape the international isolation, and the importance of Eurasian bilateral and intergovernmental relations; 4) the change of threats perception by Tehran caused by the recent events in the Caucasus and Afghanistan. The author supposes that the combined impact of these factors has made Raisi’s administration consider Eurasia as Iran’s foreign policy priority, and if this trend continues, we’ll see a more balanced approach in the future, unlike the previous periods, when relations with the West and events in the Middle East defined the central line of Iran’s policy.   
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