基于线性回归的乌克兰COVID-19预测机器学习模型

A. Mohammadi, D. Chumachenko, T. Chumachenko
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引用次数: 2

摘要

冠状病毒或COVID-19是一种广泛的大流行,几乎影响了全球所有国家。全球感染病例和死亡患者的数量一直在快速增加。这种病毒不仅感染了数十亿人,而且严重影响了几乎整个世界的经济。因此,需要详细的研究来说明COVID-19的以下趋势,以建立适当的短期预测模型来预测未来的病例数量。一般来说,灌输预测技术是为了帮助设计更好的战略和作出富有成效的决定。预测技术评估过去的情况,从而使预测未来的情况成为可能。此外,这些预测有望导致对潜在后果和威胁的准备。必须指出的是,预测技术在做出准确预测方面起着至关重要的作用。在本研究中,我们将预测技术分为不同的类型,包括随机理论数学模型和数据科学/机器学习技术。从这个角度来看,在公共卫生系统中制定和制定战略规划以禁止更多的死亡病例和管理感染病例是可行的。在这里,介绍了一些基于机器学习的预测模型,并包括线性回归模型,该模型用于评估乌克兰和全球确诊病例、死亡病例和康复病例的时间序列预测。结果表明,所建立的线性回归模型是可行的、可靠的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Machine Learning Model of COVID-19 Forecasting in Ukraine Based on the Linear Regression
Coronavirus or COVID-19 is a widespread pandemic that has affected almost all countries around the globe. The quantity of infected cases and deceased patients has been increasing at a fast pace globally. This virus not only is in charge of infecting billions of people but also affecting the economy of almost the whole world drastically. Thus, detailed studies are required to illustrating the following trend of the COVID-19 to develop proper short-term prediction models for forecasting the number of future cases. Generally, forecasting techniques are be inculcated in order to assist in designing better strategies and as well as making productive decisions. The forecasting techniques assess the situations of the past thereby enabling predictions about the situation in the future would be possible. Moreover, these predictions hopefully lead to preparation against potentially possible consequences and threats. It's crucial to point out that Forecasting techniques play a vital role in drawing accurate predictions. In this research, we categorize forecasting techniques into different types, including stochastic theory mathematical models and data science/machine learning techniques. In this perspective, it is feasible to generate and develop strategic planning in the public health system to prohibit more deceased cases and managing infected cases. Here, some forecast models based on machine learning are introduced and comprising the Linear Regression model which is assessed for time series prediction of confirmed, deaths, and recovered cases in Ukraine and the globe. It turned out that the Linear Regression model is feasible to implement and reliable in illustrating the trend of COVID-19.
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