对泰国能源安全政策的评估

S. Selvakkumaran, B. Limmeechokchai
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引用次数: 3

摘要

当前,能源是各国经济社会发展的重要保障。在这方面,能源安全是能源部门的一个重要方面。本文分析了泰国电力部门的各种政策选择所产生的收益和成本。本文考虑的政策包括i)低碳社会(LCS), ii)引进核电站,iii)综合资源规划(IRP)和iv)这些措施的组合。泰国的案例研究采用了一种自下而上的基于整数规划的优化模型,称为“能源供应战略备选方案及其一般环境影响模型”(MESSAGE)。在本研究中,泰国被建模为一个单一的区域,包括参考情景在内的七个情景。能源安全已根据石油安全、天然气安全和可持续性的主题进行了评估。结果表明,在节约成本和提高可持续发展主题下的能源安全方面,LCS和组合方案是最有效的措施。另一个重要的结果是,没有一项政策措施对泰国的石油安全产生重大影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Assessment of Thailand's energy policies on energy security
In current times, energy is of vital importance to ensure the economic and social development of countries. In this regard, energy security is an important aspect of the energy sector. This paper analyses the benefits and costs which accrue for various policy options for the Thai power sector. The policies which are considered in this paper include i) low carbon society (LCS), ii) introduction of nuclear power plants, iii) integrated resource planning (IRP) and iv) combination of these measures. The case study of Thailand has been modeled using a bottom-up integer programming based optimization model called “Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts” (MESSAGE). In this study, Thailand has been modeled as a single region with seven scenarios including the Reference scenario. Energy security has been assessed along the themes of oil security, gas security, and sustainability. Results show that in terms of cost savings and improving energy security along the theme of sustainability the LCS and Combined scenarios are the most effective measures. Another important result is that none of the policy measures have significant impacts on oil security in Thailand.
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