The Collapse of Complex Societies

THE COLLAPSE OF COMPLEX SOCIETIESJoseph TainterYou Tube Videohttp ://www.youtube.com/watch? v= ddmQhIiVM48Review Essay by Tom KandoJoseph Tainter is an anthropologist and historian who teaches at Utah State University. In 1988, he published a book titled The Collapse of Complex Societies. Since then, Tainter has amplified his thesis, making it even more compelling. This essay is based on a brilliant lecture he gave at Northwestern University on December 10, 2010. This is not a mere a summary; I add my own examples and interpretations. I do this especially at the end, where I suggest some straight-forward solutions with which Tainter may not agree.THESISTainter brings to mind another doomsday prophet, Jared Diamond, a UCLA geographer whose thesis is well-known. In his 2005 book, How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, Diamond proposed a neo-Malthusian analogy between the collapse of the Easter Islands and the possible imminent collapse of humanity. Tainter is similarly apocalyptic, but more interesting. Diamond's "Easter Island scenario" is an academic version of what "green" people have been worrying about for at least fifty years. Tainter, on the other hand, presents a sociological analysis which suggests that the root of societal collapse is located in the inexorable nature of social evolution. As a sociologist and a history buff, I found it mesmerizing.As a society evolves, it becomes more complex. In time, the level of complexity becomes unsustainable, and society begins to decline, ending up in collapse. Tainter uses the words "collapse" and "simplification" synonymously. Increasing complexity manifests itself in a growing bureaucracy. The cost of increased complexity is twofold: ( 1 ) greater expenditures of money and energy and (2) increased annoyance/pain. Complexity does solve problems, but over time it provides diminishing returns and requires more and more energy. This is the Energy-Complexity Spiral.ROME: THE PROTOTYPETainter focuses on Ancient Rome to make his point: For centuries, Rome was able to sustain its growing complexity through an extremely successful "loot and pillage" strategy. Rome subjugated various peoples and appropriated the surplus resources which those peoples had accumulated. All these resources were the product of converted solar energy. That is, they consisted of built-up minerals (precious metals, etc.) and of human energy/labor (slaves, soldiers and other annexed populations). In 167 b.c. Rome conquered Macedonia, in 130 b.c. it took over Pergamum, in 63 b.c. Pompey occupied Syria, shortly thereafter Caesar subdued Gaul, and the list goes on.However, there is a limit to the loot and pillage strategy. Expanding empires run out of areas to conquer. Furthermore, the administration of the acquired resources, territories and populations demands more and more energy. Military operations and armies must be increased, particularly very expensive components such as cavalry.Tainter shows how the Romans attempted to deal with the fiscal ramifications of growing complexity: For several centuries, (from the 3rd century b.c. to the 3rd century a.d.) the Empire's primary currency was a silver coin called the Denarius. Also in use were coins with a partial gold content. For a long time, these coins were an extremely reliable and stable measure of value, with a uniform 99 percent silver content for the Denarius. However, in time, the government decided to finance the growing cost of the empire by debasing its currency. That is, by reducing the coins' silver and gold content and relying on inflation.Costs began to skyrocket in the 60s a.d., with the Parthian War and the great Roman fire during Nero's reign (64 a.d.). By the 3rd century, the bureaucratic and military costs were exorbitant. Between 235 and 284, the empire suffered chronic invasions and civil wars. Emperors such as Diocletian (284-305) and Constantine (306-337) tried to cope through reforms that increased complexity and bureaucracy. …