气候变化作为跨界自然灾害决策问题

Elizabeth A. Albright
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摘要

在世界各地,与气候有关的重大灾难性事件摧毁了人们的生命和生计。随着温室气体排放继续在大气中积累,预计这些事件在全球范围内的频率和强度都会增加。这些灾害的原因和后果不受地理和政治界限的限制,甚至不受时间尺度的限制,这增加了管理这些灾害的复杂性。在跨界环境中,无论是面临相同跨界危险的相邻国家,还是位于同一政治管辖范围内的不同城市,往往会在不同的司法管辖区之间出现文化、治理和政策程序方面的差异。一个地区的不同司法管辖区的政治制度和程序可能不同,这对风险管理的合作和协调提出了挑战。随着气候的变化,与气候有关的自然灾害的风险不断变化,增加了对这些风险进行预测和治理的难度。此外,不同的个人群体可能暴露于相同的气候危害,但这种暴露可能以独特的方式影响这些群体。将气候变化作为一种跨界自然灾害进行管理,可能需要将重点从关注个别气候风险转向发展能力,以鼓励学习和适应跨越国界的各种气候风险。不应单独考虑适应气候风险的潜在障碍,而应将其视为一个更有活力的系统的一部分,在这个系统中,多种障碍可能相互作用,阻碍有效管理。加强横向协调,例如通过连接城市的网络,以及纵向协调,跨越多个治理层次(例如,地方、区域、国家、全球),可能有助于提高处理这些跨界风险的能力。公众更多地参与气候变化灾害风险管理,包括风险缓解和灾后恢复,可以提高地方一级适应这些灾害的能力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Climate Change as a Transboundary Policymaking Natural Hazards Problem
Throughout the world, major climate-related catastrophic events have devastated lives and livelihoods. These events are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity across the globe, as greenhouse gas emissions continue to accumulate in our atmosphere. The causes and consequences of these disasters are not constrained to geographic and political boundaries, or even temporal scales, increasing the complexity of their management. Differences in cultures, governance and policy processes often occur among jurisdictions in a transboundary setting, whether adjacent nations that are exposed to the same transboundary hazard or across municipalities located within the same political jurisdiction. Political institutions and processes may vary across jurisdictions in a region, presenting challenges to cooperation and coordination of risk management. With shifting climates, risks from climate-related natural hazards are in constant flux, increasing the difficulty of making predictions about and governing these risks. Further, different groups of individuals may be exposed to the same climate hazard, but that exposure may affect these groups in unique ways. Managing climate change as a transboundary natural hazard may mandate a shift from a focus on individual climate risks to developing capacity to encourage learning from and adaptation to a diversity of climatic risks that span boundaries. Potential barriers to adaptation to climate risks must not be considered individually but rather as a part of a more dynamic system in which multiple barriers may interact, impeding effective management. Greater coordination horizontally, for example through networks linking cities, and vertically, across multiple levels of governance (e.g., local, regional, national, global), may aid in the development of increased capacity to deal with these transboundary risks. Greater public engagement in management of risks from climate change hazards, both in risk mitigation and post-hazard recovery, could increase local-level capacity to adapt to these hazards.
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