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引用次数: 0
摘要
de Zwart(2015)对术语“意外后果”和“未预料到的后果”的合并,保持其区别的必要性以及将“意外但预期的”后果作为单独类别考虑的必要性的观点进行了分析。作者虽然同意de Zwart的观点,但也指出,除了定性方面之外,还需要认识到后果的定量方面,并提出了一个修改后的框架,使政策分析人员能够在定性和定量方面区分意外和未预料到的后果。作者认为,这个修改后的框架可以用作政策分析的工具,特别是在评估现有政策或分析政策延续或现有政策的增量变化的选择时。
A Modified de Zwart's Framework to Differentiate between Unintended and Unanticipated Consequences of Public Policies
The views of de Zwart (2015) related to the conflation of terms, “unintended consequences” and “unanticipated consequences”, the necessity to maintain their distinction and the need to take into account the “unintended but anticipated” consequences as a separate category are analyzed. The authors, while agreeing with de Zwart, also point out the need to recognize the quantitative aspects of consequences in addition to the qualitative aspects, and propose a modified framework, that can enable policy analysts to distinguish between unintended and unanticipated consequences in qualitative as well as quantitative terms. In view of authors, this modified framework can be a used as tool in policy analysis, particularly in evaluation of existing policies or while analyzing the option of policy continuation or incremental changes in an existing policy.