Global Political Risk and International Stock Returns

Using novel measures of politics-policy uncertainty we document predictable variation in stock market returns across countries. Country characteristics and existing global and local risk factors do not account for such predictability, leading to large abnormal returns, up to 15% per annum. We identify a global political risk factor (P-factor) commanding a risk premium of 11% per annum. Countries with high politics-policy uncertainty covary positively with the P-factor, thus earning higher average returns. Augmenting the global market portfolio with the P-factor significantly reduces pricing errors and improves cross-sectional fit. Politics-policy uncertainty affects returns through both cash flow and discount rate channels.