期望效用方法的经验效用

Expectations and Actions Pub Date : 1980-04-01 DOI:10.21236/ada088698

Baruch Fischhoff, Bernard Goitein, Z. Shapira

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引用次数: 8

摘要

摘要:本文回顾了许多研究成果，得出以下结论:(a)加权平均模型预测人们决策的能力因情况而异;(b)即使这些模型在预测决策方面取得了成功，但它们在描述决定决策的心理过程方面可能做得并不好。也就是说，它们预测的准确性在一定程度上是所使用的研究技术的产物。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The Experienced Utility of Expected Utility Approaches

Abstract : Reviewing many research results, the present report concludes: (a) the ability of the weighted average models to predict the decisions that people make varies from situation to situation; (b) even where they are successful in predicting decisions, these models may not do a very good job of describing the psychological processes that determined them. That is, their predictive accuracy is in part an artifact of the research techniques used.

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Expectations and Actions

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