A framework for prognosis research

This chapter introduces the PROGRESS framework, which describes four types of prognosis research, each addressing different questions. The four types concern: studies of overall prognosis (the average outcome, or outcome risk, in people with a particular health condition, in the context of the nature and quality of current care); prognostic factors (characteristics associated with changes in the average outcome, or outcome risk, across individuals); prognostic models (development, validation, and impact evaluation of statistical models, incorporating multiple prognostic factors for use in clinical practice to predict an individual’s outcome value or to estimate their outcome risk); and predictors of treatment effect (characteristics that predict whether an individual responds to a particular treatment or not). Examples of each type are given to illustrate the framework.