Editor’s Introduction

once again, as a reminder of the complexity of conflict in the twenty-first century. With each edition, we observe the consolidation of trends highlighted earlier, including the substantial internationalisation of many conflicts, which increasingly often involve regional and international actors that use the battleground to pursue their rivalries. In so doing, stakes often grow higher and the strategic repercussions of events can reverberate much further afield. For each of the 33 conflicts covered, the book provides an overview of the key developments in 2019; the events that led to the current situation; data on the conflict parties involved; the drivers of the conflict; political and military developments; and analysis of the significance of the conflict. Specifically, we delve into the consequences of the major political and military developments for human rights and the humanitarian situation, the social and economic impact of the conflict, and how it has affected relations with neighbouring and international partners. We assess the state of the conflict at the end of 2019, albeit without making predictions, and identify the trends and trajectories that will be most relevant for 2020, including prospects for conflict resolution, risks of conflict intensification or spillover, and scenarios for reconstruction. Each conflict chapter concludes with the strategic implications of the conflict locally and internationally. Complementing the analysis are conflict-specific maps and graphics to illustrate patterns and structures such as violent hotspots, armed-group networks, transitional-government structures and human-displacement data. Snapshots for each of the six geographical regions into which conflicts are organised outline key trends, strategic implications and prospects. We endeavour to underline geopolitical and geostrategic relations and how they intersect with conflict. Examples include what Turkey’s involvement in Syria means for its relationship with NATO; the impact of attacks by Baloch insurgents against Chinese interests on Islamabad–Beijing relations; or how diminishing Western engagement with the Burmese government might create room for China to expand its political influence in Myanmar. The number of situations around the world meeting our definition of armed conflict decreased from 40 in 2015, when the Armed Conflict Survey was first published, to 33 in 2019. This might seem like a marked improvement, but notwithstanding the removal of some conflicts such as Kosovo and the Niger Delta, the current line-up of conflicts also reflects multiple transformations. Since 2015, we have recorded how, owing to changes in the drivers of conflicts and the relationships among armed groups, various conflicts had to be merged – as was the case for India’s northeastern conflicts in the previous edition – while others were split, such as Central America’s Northern Triangle. In addition to these changes, some conflicts have ended, and therefore were removed from the survey, and new ones have begun, such as in Cameroon in 2017. Observing the morphing of some of the conflicts and the trajectory of many others brings the centrality of non-state armed groups into clear focus. We have highlighted this in three ways. Firstly, chapters include expanded profiles of conflict parties, a large proportion of which are non-state actors. Secondly, all four thematic essays are centred on aspects of the activities and nature of armed groups and the responses required to limit their pernicious effects. Finally, the 2020 Chart of Armed Conflict that accompanies the book compares the number of state and non-state parties in each conflict theatre. Notably, in 21 of 33 conflicts the number of non-state armed groups exceeds the number of state groups.1