Assessing the Impact of Rainfall Variability on Teff Production and Farmers Perception at Gubalafto District, North Eastern, Ethiopia

Rainfall variability adversely impacts crop production and imposes a major constraint on farming planning, mostly under rain fed conditions across developing countries. Rainfall variability from season to season greatly affects soil water availability to crops, and thus poses crop production risks to agriculture which is a major economic activity in Gubalafto District, Ethiopia. It was observed that farmers tend to rely on their accumulated experience about weather conditions in the schedule of their farm operations. Therefore, this study was designed to examine the impact of rainfall variability on teff production and farmers perception in Gubalafto district, Ethiopia. The Primary data were obtained through questionnaire administration and field observations among the farmers in Gubalafto district. Stratified random sampling technique was employed in the selection of sample size and a total of 203 farmers were randomly selected for the study. The secondary data was obtained from National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia (daily rainfall between 1984 and 2018) and Teff yield was collected from North Wollo Agricultural Office (2010-2018). Coefficient of variation, standardized anomaly index (SAI), precipitation concentration index (PCI) were used to evaluate rainfall and Teff yield variability. Sen’s slope estimator and Mann-Kendall’s test were used to determine the magnitude and trends of changes, respectively. The analysis revealed that rainfall in the district is highly variable both in space and time for the last years. The coefficient of variation showed that seasonal rainfall distribution is highly variable than annual time scale. The rainfall trends showed decreasing non-significantly in both belg and bega season while increasing non significantly in both annual and kiremt time scale over the study area. Significant correlations exist between amount of rainfall and Teff production. Hence small changes in amount and distribution of seasonal rainfall causes significant negative impacts on Teff production that varies from reduced yield to the total loss of the crop. The result of the regression analysis shows rainfall characteristics contributed 86% in explaining the variations in the yield of Teff per hectare in the study area. Both farmers’ perceptions and meteorological data show that rainfall is much more unreliable in the study area. Most farmers reported that Teff yield is a decreasing pattern over time due to shortage of rainfall, frequent irregularity of rainfall and other factors. Therefore, specific adaptation strategies are needed for the study area to cope with the risks, sustain farming and improve food security.