{"title":"评估了伊斯兰学校的新生人数","authors":"Lisa Harsyiah, Nurul Fitriyani, Salwa Salwa","doi":"10.29303/emj.v3i2.88","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study aimed to forecast the new student number at Madrasah Aliyah (MA) Manhalul Ma'arif Darek. The data used in this study was the annual time series data of new students who enrolled in the school, from the 1998/1999 academic year to 2016/2017. Based on the data obtained, it shows that the number of new students who enroll in Madrasah Aliyah (MA) Manhalul Ma'arif Darek tends to fluctuate. This fluctuating pattern is a problem faced by Madrasah Aliyah (MA) Manhalul Ma'arif Darek in determining strategic and policy steps related to planning the provision of school facilities / infrastructure. Therefore we need a forecasting method in accordance with the data pattern. The forecasting method used is the Fuzzy Time Series Cheng method. This method uses fuzzy principles as the basis of the forecasting process. The forecasting process results obtained the Mean Square Error (MSE) value of 101.5009 and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 18.49%. The results showed that the Fuzzy Time Series Cheng method performed well in predicting the number of new students at Madrasah Aliyah (MA) Manhalul Ma'arif Darek.","PeriodicalId":281429,"journal":{"name":"EIGEN MATHEMATICS JOURNAL","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Peramalan Jumlah Siswa Baru Madrasah Aliyah (MA) Manhalul Ma’arif Darek-Lombok Tengah\",\"authors\":\"Lisa Harsyiah, Nurul Fitriyani, Salwa Salwa\",\"doi\":\"10.29303/emj.v3i2.88\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This study aimed to forecast the new student number at Madrasah Aliyah (MA) Manhalul Ma'arif Darek. The data used in this study was the annual time series data of new students who enrolled in the school, from the 1998/1999 academic year to 2016/2017. Based on the data obtained, it shows that the number of new students who enroll in Madrasah Aliyah (MA) Manhalul Ma'arif Darek tends to fluctuate. This fluctuating pattern is a problem faced by Madrasah Aliyah (MA) Manhalul Ma'arif Darek in determining strategic and policy steps related to planning the provision of school facilities / infrastructure. Therefore we need a forecasting method in accordance with the data pattern. The forecasting method used is the Fuzzy Time Series Cheng method. This method uses fuzzy principles as the basis of the forecasting process. The forecasting process results obtained the Mean Square Error (MSE) value of 101.5009 and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 18.49%. The results showed that the Fuzzy Time Series Cheng method performed well in predicting the number of new students at Madrasah Aliyah (MA) Manhalul Ma'arif Darek.\",\"PeriodicalId\":281429,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"EIGEN MATHEMATICS JOURNAL\",\"volume\":\"7 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-12-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"EIGEN MATHEMATICS JOURNAL\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.29303/emj.v3i2.88\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"EIGEN MATHEMATICS JOURNAL","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.29303/emj.v3i2.88","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
摘要
这项研究的目的是预测马德拉萨阿利亚(MA) Manhalul MA 'arif Darek的新学生人数。本研究使用的数据是该校1998/1999学年至2016/2017学年每年入学新生的时间序列数据。根据所获得的数据,它表明在Manhalul MA 'arif Darek伊斯兰学校注册的新学生人数趋于波动。这种波动的模式是阿利伊斯兰学校在确定与规划提供学校设施/基础设施有关的战略和政策步骤时所面临的问题。因此,我们需要一种与数据模式相适应的预测方法。所采用的预测方法是模糊时间序列程法。该方法采用模糊原理作为预测过程的基础。预测过程结果均方误差(MSE)为101.5009,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为18.49%。结果表明,模糊时间序列Cheng方法在预测Manhalul MA 'arif Darek Madrasah Aliyah (MA)的新生数量方面表现良好。
Peramalan Jumlah Siswa Baru Madrasah Aliyah (MA) Manhalul Ma’arif Darek-Lombok Tengah
This study aimed to forecast the new student number at Madrasah Aliyah (MA) Manhalul Ma'arif Darek. The data used in this study was the annual time series data of new students who enrolled in the school, from the 1998/1999 academic year to 2016/2017. Based on the data obtained, it shows that the number of new students who enroll in Madrasah Aliyah (MA) Manhalul Ma'arif Darek tends to fluctuate. This fluctuating pattern is a problem faced by Madrasah Aliyah (MA) Manhalul Ma'arif Darek in determining strategic and policy steps related to planning the provision of school facilities / infrastructure. Therefore we need a forecasting method in accordance with the data pattern. The forecasting method used is the Fuzzy Time Series Cheng method. This method uses fuzzy principles as the basis of the forecasting process. The forecasting process results obtained the Mean Square Error (MSE) value of 101.5009 and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 18.49%. The results showed that the Fuzzy Time Series Cheng method performed well in predicting the number of new students at Madrasah Aliyah (MA) Manhalul Ma'arif Darek.