关于制裁和汇率

M. Ershov, A. Tanasova
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引用次数: 2

摘要

文章强调,俄罗斯专家此前曾准确预测到俄罗斯的黄金和外汇储备将被冻结。值得注意的是,卢布贬值是西方国家考虑到的制裁对俄罗斯经济影响的目标之一。显然,完全相反的做法——防止卢布贬值并将其转变为稳定的强势货币——是一种反制裁措施。由于俄罗斯经济对进口的高度依赖,以及在需要寻找替代进口方式(主要是投资)的情况下,这将导致其价格上涨并产生相应的后果,过度的汇率贬值可能会对经济发展产生不利影响,特别是从长远来看。此外,极其重要的是确保汇率的稳定。结论是,稳定和不贬值的卢布将形成业务持续发展的基础,并扩大在外贸结算中使用卢布的可能性。在限制在对外贸易中使用主要货币的情况下,这一点尤其重要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
On Sanctions and the Exchange Rate
The article emphasizes that freezing of Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves was previously accurately predicted by Russian experts. Attention is drawn to the fact that weakening of the ruble was one of the goals of the sanctions impact on the Russian economy that Western countries were bearing in mind. It is obvious that the exact opposite — preventing its depreciation and turning the ruble into a stable strong currency — is an anti-sanction measure. With high dependence of the Russian economy on imports, as well as in the situation when it is necessary to find alternative ways for imports (primarily for investment), which will lead to their higher prices with corresponding consequences, an excessive exchange rate depreciation may adversely affect economic development, especially in a long term. In addition, extremely important is ensuring stability of the exchange rate. It is concluded that stable and non-depreciating ruble will form the basis for consistent development of business and expand the possibilities for using the ruble in foreign trade settlements as well. It is particularly relevant in the context of restrictions on the use of leading currencies in foreign trade.
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