数据缺失情况下基于GOM(1,1)模型的电力负荷预测

Jiran Zhu, Xu Yuan-can, Hua Leng, Haiguo Tang, Gong Han-yang, Zhang Zhi-dan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在实际的电力负荷预测中,由于许多主客观因素的影响,往往会在原始数据中出现数据缺失。GOM(1,1)模型不能直接基于等距序列数据进行预测。本文假定缺失数据是客观存在的。以最小化相对误差为目标函数。将缺失数据条件下的GOM(1,1)建模问题转化为基于约束的非线性规划的参数求解问题。通过实例分析,本文方法的预测结果优于基于传统插值方法的GM(1,1)模型和GOM(1,1)模型。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Power load forecasting based on GOM(1,1) model under the condition of missing data
In the actual power load forecasting, there are often missing data in the original data due to many subjective and objective factors. GOM(1,1) model can't be used to predict based on the equidistant sequence data directly. In this paper, it is supposed that the missing data is the objective existence. Minimizing relative error is taken as the objective function. The problem of GOM(1,1) modeling under the condition of missing data is transformed into the problem of solving parameters and based on nonlinear programming with constraints. Through the example analysis, the forecasting result of this method in this paper is superior to GM (1,1) model and GOM (1,1) model based on traditional interpolation method.
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