在确保国家债务可持续性的背景下预测乌克兰的国家债务

A. Kornieva
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摘要

目标。本文的目的是评估债务指标的状况,确定债务指标结构和动态的积极和消极变化,预测乌克兰的公共债务数额,并在反危机行动计划的背景下制定建议,以确保国家的中期债务可持续性。本研究的理论基础是国内外科学家关于公共债务管理、债务政策、债务可持续性和国家债务安全的科学著作。在研究过程中使用了以下研究方法:分析和综合(确定危机和危机间期),历史逻辑(分组并确定因果关系),计量经济学建模(建立预测增值税和公共债务的模型)和情景分析(评估未来事件的可能选择)。结果。基于对公共债务、预算赤字及其与GDP之比的统计分析,公共政策的主要趋势与趋同标准的一致性,确定了公共债务和预算赤字动态的三个历史时期,确定了金融危机的原因和后果。建议采用一种全新的方法来预测公共债务并根据安全的偿债来源确定额外借款的安全数额,选择这种来源是合理的。建立了公共债务预测的回归模型。为了保证国家在中期的偿债能力,在税收和预算政策方面提出了一套战术措施。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
FORECASTING THE STATE DEBT OF UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF ENSURING THE STATE DEBT SUSTAINABILITY
Objective. The objective of the article is to assess the state of debt indicators, identify posi­tive and negative changes in the structure and dynamics of debt indicators, forecast the amount of public debt of Ukraine, and develop recommendations to ensure medium-term debt sustainability of the state in the context of anticrisis action plan. Methods. The theoretical basis of the study is the scientific works of domestic andforeign sci­entists on public debt management, debt policy, debt sustainability and debt security of the state. The following research methods are used in the research process: analysis and synthesis (to deter­mine crisis and intercrisis periods), historical-logical (to group and determine causal relation­ships), econometric modeling (to build models for forecasting VAT and public debt) and scenario analysis (to assess possible options for further events). Results. Based on the analysis of statistics on public debt, budget deficit, their ratio to GDP, the main trends in public policy regarding compliance with the convergence criteria, three historical periods in the dynamics of public debt and budget deficit are identified, the causes and conse­quences of financial crises are determined. A fundamentally new approach to forecasting public debt and determining the safe amount of additional borrowing in accordance with safe sources of debt repayment is proposed, the choice of such sources is justified. A regression model of public debt forecast is built. In order to ensure the solvency of the state in the medium term, a system of tactical measures in the field of tax and budget policy is proposed.
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