在流行病和军事侵略的冲击下,乌克兰的预算赤字和公共债务

Tetiana Bohdan, I. Bohdan
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摘要

介绍。在疫情和战争期间,政府运作的特殊条件引起了国家机构的强烈反应,因此,乌克兰2022-2023年的预算赤字规模大大超过了不同国家集团的历史值和平均值,因为大多数债务负担指标恶化,产生了债务不可持续的危险。问题陈述。通过过去和当代全球现象来识别乌克兰财政政策的性质,识别极端条件下影响债务可持续性状况的宏观金融因素,分析债务负担指标和财政风险,以概述解决乌克兰财政和债务问题的途径。目的。揭示与疫情和军事行动有关的紧急情况下扩张性财政政策行为和公共债务积累的全球模式和国家特点,调查乌克兰政府偿付能力恶化的因素,评估相关风险,并确定中期公共债务管理工具。方法。运用一般的科学方法和特殊的方法:分析与综合、描述与比较、历史方法、理论概括方法和抽象逻辑方法。结果。研究发现,2020年、2021年和2022年乌克兰总政府运行对总需求的影响为正,这与2015-2019年财政政策产生限制作用形成鲜明对比。2014年至2018年,乌克兰的财政政策具有顺周期性质,仅在2020年转向逆周期立场,并将这一进程维持到2023年。事实证明,乌克兰大部分债务负担指标都违反了债务可持续性标准,表明一般政府存在较高的偿付能力风险和流动性风险;此外,与2019年相比,2020年和2022-2023年的大多数指标动态不利。所进行的计算表明,随着乌克兰敌对行动的开始,公共债务结构固有的再融资风险、外汇和利率风险大大增加。结论。在战后时期,紧缩预算赤字和平衡地调整公共外债结构应成为减债的主要杠杆。在考虑现有风险的情况下有效管理公共债务,对于确保宏观金融稳定和政府积极参与国家战后重建至关重要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Budget deficits and public debt of Ukraine under the shocks of pandemic and military aggression
Introduction. The extraordinary conditions for the government’s functioning during the pandemic and warfare provoked a strong respose of the state institutions, as a result of which the size of budget deficit in Ukraine over 2022-2023 exceeded a lot the historical values and averages for the different country groups as most indicators of the debt burden worsened, generating the danger of debt unsustainability. Problem Statement. Identification of the nature of Ukraine’s fiscal policy through the lens of past and contemporary global phenomenon, identification of macro-financial factors impacting he state of debt sustainability under the extreme conditions, analysis of debt burden indicators and fiscal risks in order to outline the ways of solving the fiscal and debt problems in Ukraine. Purpose. To reveal the global patterns and national features of the expansive fiscal policy conduct and public debt accumulation in emergency conditions which are connected with the pandemic and military actions , to investigate the factors of Ukrainian government’s solvency deterioration and to assess the relevant risks, as well as to define the tools of public debt management in the medium run. Methods. General scientific and special methods are applied: analysis and synthesis, description and comparison, historical method, method of theoretical generalization and abstract-logical method. Results. It has been found that the impact of operations of the general government on aggregate demand in Ukraine was positive in 2020, 2021 and 2022, and this situation was in sharp contrast to the period of 2015-2019, when fiscal policy produced restrictive effects. Fiscal policy in Ukraine was of pro-cyclical nature in 2014-2018 and turned to countercyclical stance only in 2020 with sustaining this course until 2023. It has been proven that in Ukraine the debt sustainability criteria are violated across major part of debt burden indicators , that signal the high solvency risks and liquidity risks for general government; moreover, relative to 2019, the dynamics of most indicators in 2020 and 2022-2023 were unfavorable. Computations conducted indicate that refinancing risks, foreign exchange and interest rate risks inherent to the structure of public debt have increased significantly with the start of hostilities in Ukraine. Conclusions. In the post-war period, contraction of budget deficit and well-balanced restructuring of the external public debt should become the main levers for debt reduction. Effective management of public debt with consideration of existing risks are important for securing macro-financial stability and active government’s involvement in the post-war reconstruction of the country.
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