估算服务业对孟加拉国经济增长的影响:计量经济学调查

Raju Ahmed, N. Lubna, S. Sumon
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引用次数: 10

摘要

本研究试图探讨 1973-2017 年间服务业对孟加拉国经济增长的贡献。我们使用国内生产总值(GDP)作为衡量孟加拉国经济增长的指标。服务相关部门的子部门与一些控制变量一起被用作解释变量。在本研究中,我们运用了各种计量经济学工具,如单位根检验、格兰杰因果检验、ARDL 约束检验、误差修正模型和协整检验,以研究服务业相关部门与国内生产总值或经济增长之间的因果关系和关系强度。格兰杰因果检验表明,服务业相关部门与国内生产总值之间存在单向格兰杰因果关系。误差修正项意味着短期失衡与长期失衡的调整速度为 17%。此外,ARDL 约束方法表明,服务业相关部门与国内生产总值的增长在短期和长期都是相关的。结果表明,服务业相关部门扩张 1%,短期内将导致国内生产总值或经济增长增长 0.64%,长期内将导致国内生产总值增长 0.75%。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Estimating the Services Sector Impact on Economic Growth of Bangladesh: An Econometric Investigation
This study attempts to examine the contribution of the service related sector in the economic growth of Bangladesh during the period of 1973-2017. We used the Gross domestic product (GDP) as a measure of economic growth for Bangladesh. Sub-sectors of service-related sector have been used as explanatory variables along with some control variables. In this study, we apply various econometric tools like as Unit Root test, Granger causality test, ARDL Bound test, Error correction model and Co-integration test to investigate the causal relationship and the intensity of the relationship between the service related sector and gross domestic product or economic growth. Granger causality test shows the presence of uni-directional granger causality from the service related sector to gross domestic product. The error correction term implies that the short-run disequilibrium is adjusted with the long-run at the speed of 17 percent. Moreover, ARDL bound approach indicates the service related sector and gross domestic product growth are correlated both in short-run and long-run. The result shows that 1% expansion in service-related sector will result in an increase of 0.64% gross domestic product or economic growth in short-run and 0.75% of GDP in the long-run .
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