Applications of Dynamic Systems Theory to Effects-Based Operations and Adversarial Modelling

Abstract : Effects-based operations (EBO) has become an increasingly important doctrinal concept used in the prosecution of war, most especially against terrorist organizations and the rogue states which support them. As a philosophy, EBO reaches beyond the realm of the propagation of simple physical effects. EBO encompasses the full spectrum of military activities, including psychological operations (PSYOPS). While a number of different accounts of EBO have been documented (Warden 1995, Barlow 1994), alarmingly little work has been conducted concerning the application of effects-based operations to organizations of human entities. Herein, we present a formal model of nth-order cascading belief revision in the style of Warden's model. The considered approach is motivated by the theory of dynamic systems, and is able to be generalized through the manipulation of beliefs via information-theoretic (Shannon & Weaver 1949) metrics. We shall conclude with a simple example, and some future directions for research in this area.