Evaluation of a convective downburst prediction application for India

During the month of June 2015, the South Asian (or Southwest) monsoon advanced steadily from the southern to the northwestern states of India. The progression of the monsoon had an apparent effect on the relative strength of convective storm downbursts that occurred during June and July 2015. A convective downburst prediction algorithm, involving the Microburst Windspeed Potential Index (MWPI) and a satellite-derived three-band microburst risk product, and applied with meteorological geostationary satellite (KALPANA-1 VHRR and METEOSAT-7) and MODIS Aqua data, was evaluated and found to effectively indicate relative downburst intensity in both pre-monsoon and monsoon environments over various regions of India. The MWPI product, derived from T574L64 Global Forecast System (NGFS) model data, is being generated in real-time by National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Ministry of Earth Sciences, India. The validation process entailed direct comparison of measured downburst-related wind gusts at airports and India Meteorological Department (IMD) observatories to adjacent MWPI values calculated from GFS and India NGFS model datasets. Favorable results include a statistically significant positive correlation between MWPI values and proximate measured downburst wind gusts with a confidence level near 100%. Case studies demonstrate the influence of the South Asian monsoon on convective storm environments and the response of the downburst prediction algorithm.