Examining Small and Middle States’ Behaviour Vis-à-vis Rival Great Powers Through a Case Study of Australia

One of the most significant questions in international relations today is whether the world is heading towards a new Cold War. It is important to examine this issue from the viewpoint of small and middle states, whose behaviour vis-à-vis the great powers during the Cold War basically consisted of siding with one or the other. Are we seeing the same behaviour today, or are small and middle states employing different strategies due to the different circumstances? This paper seeks to answer this question through a case study of Australia, a middle power, whose security is guaranteed by the US but whose main trading partner is China. While during the Cold War Australia clearly belonged to the US-led Western bloc, its situation in the current power struggle between the US and China is more complicated. The paper examines Australia’s relationship with both superpowers and concludes that it follows a hedging strategy, whereby it maximises rewards from both sides while also preparing a fallback position in case circumstances change. This strategy is necessitated by the global economic interdependence that has resulted from globalisation. The study finds that Australia’s strategy vis-à-vis the two rival great powers of today is different from its strategy during the Cold War. Many other small and middle states are hedging in a similar way, and this fundamental difference in their behaviour compared to the Cold War leads to the conclusion that there will be no return to a Cold War with clearly separate blocks.