A Time Series Analysis Using Shannon Index of Annual Domestic Crop Production and Area Planted in Jamaica from 2007 to 2021

- This paper aims to determine agricultural non-tree crop diversification with respect to crop production and area reaped in Jamaica from 2007 to 2021 using the Shannon-Wiener index. Shannon Index was calculated to determine diversification nationally and by parish. Time series analysis was done for the resulting transformed dataset and ten-year forecasts computed for national production and area reaped using linear and quadratic models. Two variables of the Shannon index, namely quantity and abundance, classified as the number of crops and the percent area reaped respectively, were regressed against the Shannon indices of area reaped and production for each parish. At the national level, a decreasing trend was unveiled for the Shannon indices for production and area reaped. This indicates that crop production and area reaped will suffer a decrease in diversification without intervention. Additionally, all parishes with the exception of Trelawny, Portland and St. Ann were diverse in crop production and area reaped. Despite moderate to high Shannon indices in most parishes, their forecasts showed decreases in production diversification in the next 10 years except for Portland, and Kingston and St Andrew which showed increase. All parishes showed decrease in diversification in area reaped with the exception of Portland, Kingston and St Andrew, St Catherine, and St Elizabeth. Regressions for Clarendon and St James were significant for the Shannon indices of production and area reaped however they showed decrease in the Shannon indices for an increase in percent area reaped implying that as agricultural land usage is increasing, the diversities in production and area reaped are still decreasing. For St James only, increasing in the number of crops will result in an increase in the Shannon indices for production and area reaped implying that as the number of crops increases, the diversification of production and area reaped increases.