我们什么时候开始?老龄化日本的养老金改革

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2017-02-15 DOI:10.1111/jere.12135

Sagiri Kitao

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引用次数: 9

摘要

日本正面临着快速的人口老龄化和财政挑战。本文模拟了养老金改革，在30年的时间里，将替代率降低20%，退休年龄逐步提高3岁。我们分别在2020年、2030年和2040年考虑了三种不同时间点启动改革的情景。延迟将抑制经济活动，使产出减少4%，并使税收负担增加8%以上的总消费。推迟改革意味着将人口老龄化的成本转移到年轻人身上，并使未来几代人的福利在消费对等方面恶化多达3%。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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When do we Start? Pension reform in ageing Japan

Japan is faced with rapid demographic ageing and fiscal challenges. This paper simulates pension reform to reduce the replacement rate by 20% and raise the retirement age by 3 years gradually over a 30-year period. We consider three scenarios with different points in time to initiate reform in 2020, 2030 and 2040, respectively. A delay would suppress economic activities, lowering output by up to 4% and raising tax burden by more than 8% of total consumption. Delaying reform implies a transfer of costs of demographic ageing to the young and deteriorates the welfare of future generations by up to 3% in terms of consumption equivalence.

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.