Parsimonious Modelling for Estimating Hospital Cooling Demand to Improve Energy Efficiency

Of all the different types of public buildings, hospitals are the biggest energy consumers. Cooling systems for air conditioning and healthcare uses are particularly energy intensive. Forecasting hospital thermal-cooling demand is a remarkable and innovative method capable of improving the overall energy efficiency of an entire cooling system. Predictive models allow users to forecast the activity of water-cooled generators and adapt power generation to the real demand expected for the day ahead, while avoiding inefficient subcooling. In addition, the maintenance costs related to unnecessary starts and stops and power-generator breakdowns occurring over the long term can be reduced. This study is based on the operations of a real hospital facility and details the steps taken to develop an optimal and efficient model based on a genetic methodology that searches for low-complexity models through feature selection, parameter tuning and parsimonious model selection. The methodology, called GAparsimony, has been tested with neural networks, support vector machines and gradient boosting techniques. Finally, a weighted combination of the three best models was created. The new operational method employed herein can be replicated in similar buildings with similar water-cooled generators.