利用军事网络行动作为威慑

Maria Keinonen
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摘要

威慑理论是在第二次世界大战后形成的,用来描述有核国家之间的紧张关系。由于其起源,威慑主要是从强国的角度来研究的。然而,如今威慑对任何国家都是必不可少的战略。对技术日益增长的依赖迫使各国在网络空间以及其他领域保护自己的主权。网络作战不仅应被视为保护网络领域的手段,而且应被视为威慑手段。跨域威慑(CDD)是一种将包括网络空间在内的所有作战领域都纳入威慑范围的理论。尽管有这些新的观点,军事网络行动作为威慑的使用主要是在进攻战略方面进行的研究。将所有类型的军事网络行动纳入威慑战略尚未得到充分研究。本研究的重点是小国利用网络行动制造威慑的可能性。研究的问题是:“一个小国如何利用网络行动作为威慑?”根据芬兰人的理解,网络作战可分为三种类型:进攻性、防御性和支持性作战。以芬兰为例,本文认为,对于任何依赖网络空间的国家来说,使用军事网络行动都是值得注意的,不仅是为了军事目的,而且是为了建立CDD。通过对CDD理论和网络作战特点的研究,形成对该课题的更好理解,为学术讨论提供思路。研究方法为内容分析法和SWOT分析法。提出的关键观察是,每种类型的网络行动都在形成CDD方面发挥作用。对于一个小国来说,使用各种类型的网络行动是有利可图的,从而扩大了威慑的工具箱。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Using Military Cyber Operations as a Deterrent
The Deterrence theory was formed after the World War II to describe the tensions between nuclear-armed states. Because of its origins, deterrence is mainly researched from the point of view of powerful states. However, deterrence nowadays is essential for any state to include in their strategies. The ever-increasing dependence on technology forces states to protect their sovereignty in cyberspace as well as in other domains. Cyber operations should be considered not just as a means to protect the cyber domain, but as means of deterrence. Cross domain deterrence (CDD) is a theory that includes all the warfighting domains in creating deterrence, including cyberspace. Despite these new perspectives, the use of military cyber operations as a deterrent has been studied mainly in terms of offensive strategies. Incorporating all types of military cyber operations into deterrence strategies is understudied. This study focuses on the possibilities of a small state to use cyber operations to create deterrence. The research question is: “How can a small state use cyber operations as a deterrent?” According to the Finnish understanding, cyber operations can be divided into three types: offensive, defensive and supportive operations. Using Finland as a case study, this paper argues that using military cyber operations is noteworthy for any state dependent on cyberspace, not only for military purposes, but for building CDD. The CDD theory and characteristics of cyber operations are studied in order to form better understanding of the topic and provide ideas for academic discussion. The research methods are content and SWOT analysis. The key observation presented is that each type of cyber operation has a role in forming CDD. For a small state, it´s profitable to use every type of cyber operations and thus expand the tool box for deterrence.
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