{"title":"优化风险评分","authors":"Berk Ustun, C. Rudin","doi":"10.1145/3097983.3098161","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Risk scores are simple classification models that let users quickly assess risk by adding, subtracting, and multiplying a few small numbers. Such models are widely used in healthcare and criminal justice, but are often built ad hoc. In this paper, we present a principled approach to learn risk scores that are fully optimized for feature selection, integer coefficients, and operational constraints. We formulate the risk score problem as a mixed integer nonlinear program, and present a new cutting plane algorithm to efficiently recover its optimal solution. Our approach can fit optimized risk scores in a way that scales linearly with the sample size of a dataset, provides a proof of optimality, and obeys complex constraints without parameter tuning. We illustrate these benefits through an extensive set of numerical experiments, and an application where we build a customized risk score for ICU seizure prediction.","PeriodicalId":314049,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 23rd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2017-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"49","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Optimized Risk Scores\",\"authors\":\"Berk Ustun, C. Rudin\",\"doi\":\"10.1145/3097983.3098161\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Risk scores are simple classification models that let users quickly assess risk by adding, subtracting, and multiplying a few small numbers. Such models are widely used in healthcare and criminal justice, but are often built ad hoc. In this paper, we present a principled approach to learn risk scores that are fully optimized for feature selection, integer coefficients, and operational constraints. We formulate the risk score problem as a mixed integer nonlinear program, and present a new cutting plane algorithm to efficiently recover its optimal solution. Our approach can fit optimized risk scores in a way that scales linearly with the sample size of a dataset, provides a proof of optimality, and obeys complex constraints without parameter tuning. We illustrate these benefits through an extensive set of numerical experiments, and an application where we build a customized risk score for ICU seizure prediction.\",\"PeriodicalId\":314049,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Proceedings of the 23rd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2017-08-13\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"49\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Proceedings of the 23rd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1145/3097983.3098161\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Proceedings of the 23rd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3097983.3098161","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Risk scores are simple classification models that let users quickly assess risk by adding, subtracting, and multiplying a few small numbers. Such models are widely used in healthcare and criminal justice, but are often built ad hoc. In this paper, we present a principled approach to learn risk scores that are fully optimized for feature selection, integer coefficients, and operational constraints. We formulate the risk score problem as a mixed integer nonlinear program, and present a new cutting plane algorithm to efficiently recover its optimal solution. Our approach can fit optimized risk scores in a way that scales linearly with the sample size of a dataset, provides a proof of optimality, and obeys complex constraints without parameter tuning. We illustrate these benefits through an extensive set of numerical experiments, and an application where we build a customized risk score for ICU seizure prediction.