决策的科学与艺术

E. Çepni
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Without any doubt science is exceptional and dynamic and by far the optimum means of discovering the world and all that it encompasses. What hasn't changed is the curiosity, imagination and intelligence of those doing science [1]. Despite the fact that scientific discoveries and inventions invariably enhance life to a large degree as well as being accredited with expanding the expected lifespan of humans, scientific and technological improvements may equally precipitate alienation, loss of privacy, environmental problems (chemical and electronic waste), and a greater uncertainty or a black swan event. Science is perceived to be subject about knowledge with curiosity lying at the heart of it, differing from technology in that technology is preferably explained as doing. The 19th century scientist Pierre Laplace elevated determinism to a key place in science. He linked determinism and the ability to predict to the very notion of success in science [2]. For technical decisions science is an unrivalled tool to use, however, for managerial, institutional and personal daily life decisions the same recommendation cannot be given. Numerous key systems incorporated in the life of humans exhibit diverse complexities. Markets compromised of various buyers and sellers all categorized in groups participating in mutual funds, economies with hierarchies of workers, departments, firms, and industries; multi-celled organisms consisting of proteins, membranes, organelles, cells, and organs, the internet with users, stations, servers, and websites. Each of these complex systems exhibits a distinctive property called “emergence” roughly described by a phrase “the whole is more than the sum of the actions of the parts [3]. Scientists depend on the law of rationality; however, the fact that emotion habitually dominates humans on innumerable occasions is well recognized. Perhaps a more effective method for solving the problems of humanity should include deciphering the laws of human nature. As an alternative to the law of rationality, consideration could be given to whether it is preferable for scientists use the law of bounded rationality which may entail radical paradigm shift in scientific studies. The fundamental gap between the explicit accomplishments of knowledge acquisition in the natural sciences versus the rather minimal successes in understanding the dynamics of the social realm is the inherent nonlinearity, instability, and uncertainty of behaviour consistent with social systems. However, the possibility that an alternative strategy exists to close this gap is highly feasible. This article aims at showing the justification for the discarding the rule of rationality assumption in engagement and comprehension of scientific studies, and as a substitute insert human behaviours and emotions. Our emotional self is the principal power behind our creativity and passion and constitutes humanity. Controlling the nature may be easier than controlling the human nature. Today the study of chaos, and systemic thinking (emphasis is given to complexity, networks and patterns of organization) has emerged at the forefront of natural sciences too. Disquiet exists concerning events that may lead to the destruction of our civilization even the elimination of life on Earth. In 2050 the World population will reach 9.7 billion. There is also an urgent need to introduce eco-ethical standards into science. Decision making is not merely a science; there is a requisite for creative and individuality aspects of it to be examined. In the development of technologies, the human nature, psychological and sociological impacts of these technologies must be analysed in a holistic way. 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Despite the fact that scientific discoveries and inventions invariably enhance life to a large degree as well as being accredited with expanding the expected lifespan of humans, scientific and technological improvements may equally precipitate alienation, loss of privacy, environmental problems (chemical and electronic waste), and a greater uncertainty or a black swan event. Science is perceived to be subject about knowledge with curiosity lying at the heart of it, differing from technology in that technology is preferably explained as doing. The 19th century scientist Pierre Laplace elevated determinism to a key place in science. He linked determinism and the ability to predict to the very notion of success in science [2]. For technical decisions science is an unrivalled tool to use, however, for managerial, institutional and personal daily life decisions the same recommendation cannot be given. Numerous key systems incorporated in the life of humans exhibit diverse complexities. 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引用次数: 9

摘要

今天的决策者经常遇到越来越复杂和相互关联的问题,在此之前需要大量的重大决策在本质上是动态的。在不断变化的环境中,许多决策的需求往往是相互依赖的,而不是单个决策。几千年来,人们一直努力记录对环境和周围环境的观察,渴望了解情况,从而能够对未来进行某种形式的预期或预测。通过一系列科学家和哲学家的贡献,人类已经影响到提高生活质量的成就,开始对生命的本质产生影响,并鼓励人们试图通过到其他星球旅行获得更多的知识。毫无疑问,科学是特殊的、动态的,是迄今为止发现世界及其所包含的一切的最佳手段。没有改变的是科学工作者的好奇心、想象力和智慧。尽管科学发现和发明不可避免地在很大程度上延长了人类的预期寿命,但科学和技术的进步同样可能导致疏远、隐私的丧失、环境问题(化学和电子废物),以及更大的不确定性或黑天鹅事件。科学被认为是知识的主体,好奇心是它的核心,与技术的不同之处在于,技术最好被解释为做。19世纪的科学家皮埃尔·拉普拉斯将决定论提升到了科学的关键地位。他将决定论和预测能力与科学成功的概念联系在一起。对于技术决策,科学是一种无可比拟的工具,然而,对于管理、机构和个人日常生活决策,无法给出同样的建议。人类生活中包含的许多关键系统表现出不同的复杂性。由各种买家和卖家组成的市场都被归类为参与共同基金的群体,以及工人、部门、公司和行业等级制的经济体;由蛋白质、膜、细胞器、细胞和器官组成的多细胞生物,有用户、站点、服务器和网站的互联网。这些复杂系统中的每一个都表现出一种被称为“涌现”的独特特性,大致可以用一句话来描述:“整体大于部分行为的总和”。科学家依靠理性法则;然而,情感在无数场合习惯性地支配人类这一事实是众所周知的。也许解决人性问题更有效的方法应该包括破译人性法则。作为理性法则的替代,可以考虑是否更适合科学家使用有限理性法则,这可能会导致科学研究中的激进范式转变。自然科学知识获取的明确成就与理解社会领域动态的相当微小的成功之间的根本差距是与社会系统一致的行为固有的非线性、不稳定性和不确定性。然而,存在一种替代战略来缩小这一差距的可能性是非常可行的。本文旨在说明在科学研究的参与和理解中抛弃理性假设规则,代之以人的行为和情感的正当性。我们的情感自我是我们创造力和激情背后的主要力量,构成了人性。控制自然可能比控制人性更容易。今天,对混沌的研究和系统思维(强调复杂性、网络和组织模式)也出现在自然科学的前沿。人们对可能导致人类文明毁灭甚至地球上生命灭绝的事件感到不安。到2050年,世界人口将达到97亿。同时,迫切需要将生态伦理标准引入科学。决策不仅仅是一门科学;有必要对它的创造性和个性方面进行检查。在技术发展过程中,必须全面分析这些技术的人性、心理和社会学影响。本文的主要目的是表明决策,特别是在不确定性下的决策,部分是科学的,部分是启发式的或艺术的现象。决策的艺术方面不应该被排除在科学之外。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Science and Art Of Decision Making
Decision makers of today routinely encounter increasingly complex and interrelated problems, preceding the necessity for a large number of significant decisions to be dynamic in nature. Frequently rather than a single decision the requirement of a number of decisions exists, conventionally being interdependent on each other in an environment of progressive change. For thousands of years people have endeavoured to document observations of the environment and surroundings, with the aspiration of comprehending situations, which in turn enable a form of anticipation or prediction of the future. Through the contributions of a range of scientists and philosophers' humanity has affected the achievement of an improved quality of life, commencement of influence on the essence of life and encouragement to attempt to gain even further knowledge through travel to other planets. Without any doubt science is exceptional and dynamic and by far the optimum means of discovering the world and all that it encompasses. What hasn't changed is the curiosity, imagination and intelligence of those doing science [1]. Despite the fact that scientific discoveries and inventions invariably enhance life to a large degree as well as being accredited with expanding the expected lifespan of humans, scientific and technological improvements may equally precipitate alienation, loss of privacy, environmental problems (chemical and electronic waste), and a greater uncertainty or a black swan event. Science is perceived to be subject about knowledge with curiosity lying at the heart of it, differing from technology in that technology is preferably explained as doing. The 19th century scientist Pierre Laplace elevated determinism to a key place in science. He linked determinism and the ability to predict to the very notion of success in science [2]. For technical decisions science is an unrivalled tool to use, however, for managerial, institutional and personal daily life decisions the same recommendation cannot be given. Numerous key systems incorporated in the life of humans exhibit diverse complexities. Markets compromised of various buyers and sellers all categorized in groups participating in mutual funds, economies with hierarchies of workers, departments, firms, and industries; multi-celled organisms consisting of proteins, membranes, organelles, cells, and organs, the internet with users, stations, servers, and websites. Each of these complex systems exhibits a distinctive property called “emergence” roughly described by a phrase “the whole is more than the sum of the actions of the parts [3]. Scientists depend on the law of rationality; however, the fact that emotion habitually dominates humans on innumerable occasions is well recognized. Perhaps a more effective method for solving the problems of humanity should include deciphering the laws of human nature. As an alternative to the law of rationality, consideration could be given to whether it is preferable for scientists use the law of bounded rationality which may entail radical paradigm shift in scientific studies. The fundamental gap between the explicit accomplishments of knowledge acquisition in the natural sciences versus the rather minimal successes in understanding the dynamics of the social realm is the inherent nonlinearity, instability, and uncertainty of behaviour consistent with social systems. However, the possibility that an alternative strategy exists to close this gap is highly feasible. This article aims at showing the justification for the discarding the rule of rationality assumption in engagement and comprehension of scientific studies, and as a substitute insert human behaviours and emotions. Our emotional self is the principal power behind our creativity and passion and constitutes humanity. Controlling the nature may be easier than controlling the human nature. Today the study of chaos, and systemic thinking (emphasis is given to complexity, networks and patterns of organization) has emerged at the forefront of natural sciences too. Disquiet exists concerning events that may lead to the destruction of our civilization even the elimination of life on Earth. In 2050 the World population will reach 9.7 billion. There is also an urgent need to introduce eco-ethical standards into science. Decision making is not merely a science; there is a requisite for creative and individuality aspects of it to be examined. In the development of technologies, the human nature, psychological and sociological impacts of these technologies must be analysed in a holistic way. The main aim of the paper is to show that decision making especially under uncertainty is partly scientific partly heuristic or artistic phenomenon. The art side of decision making shouldn't be expelled from science.
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