工人汇款与其他外部融资要素的比较及其对约旦经济增长和人力资本的影响(1979-2015)

Eyad Moufaq Alkousini
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究的目的是根据内生增长理论,通过提高人力资本来衡量1979-2015年期间约旦工人汇款对经济增长的影响。为此,使用时间序列分析(协整检验和矢量误差校正模型)。相应的,我们发现所有表示变量的序列在第一次差分处都是平稳的。结果还表明,变量之间存在两个协整向量。因此,采用向量误差修正模型对模型进行估计,表明经济增长与解释变量之间存在长期关系。估计表明,对工人汇款和外国贷款都有统计意义上的积极影响,而对外国直接投资和外国援助都没有统计意义上的积极影响。研究报告最后提出了几项建议,我们总结了工人汇款作为一种外部资金来源的重要性,其特点是相对稳定、成本低、不直接与任何需求挂钩。这使其成为最重要的外部融资来源之一,除了支持人力资本的吸收能力,从而支持经济增长和深化资本的作用(资本深化),提高其生产率。另一方面,需要通过提高用于教育、培训和技能获取的外国援助和外国贷款的比例,更好地将外部资金来源引向支持劳动力吸收能力(知识、技能和经验)的项目,这将增强其在短期和长期经济增长中的作用,并将其用于资本项目,这可能增强工人汇款的作用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Worker Remittances Compared to Other Elements of External Financing and Their Impact on Economic Growth and Human Capital in Jordan (1979-2015)
The objective of this study is to measure the impact of the workers' remittances on economic growth in Jordan during the period 1979-2015 by enhancing human capital according to the theory of endogenous growth. For this purpose, time series analysis (cointegration tests and vector error correction model) is used. Corresponding it is found that all the series representing the variables are stationary at the first difference. The results also show that there are two cointegration vectors relating the variables. Therefore, the model was estimated using vector error correction model, which showed a long-term relationship between economic growth and explanatory variables. The estimate showed that there is a positive effect of statistical significance for each of the remittances of workers and foreign loans, and a positive effect that is not statistically significant for both foreign direct investment and foreign aid. The study concluded with several recommendations that we summarize regarding the importance of workers' remittances as an external source of financing, characterized by its relative stability, low costs and not being directly linked to any requirements, which makes it one of the most important external sources of financing in addition to a role in supporting the absorptive capacity of human capital and thus supporting economic growth and deepening the role of capital (capital deepening) and raise its productivity. On the other hand, the need to better direct the sources of external flows towards projects that support the absorptive capacity (knowledge, skills and experiences) of the workforce, by raising the proportion of foreign aid and foreign loans directed towards spending on education, training and skills acquisition, which enhances their role in the short and long term in economic growth as well as Towards capital projects, which may enhance the role of workers' remittances.
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