菲利普斯曲线的全局和局部

Hokky Situngkir
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摘要

本文将简要回顾历史经济学中关于菲利普斯曲线(即失业率与通胀率之间的关系)的争论。运用极值理论的分析方法,即秩次统计方法,对不同地区国家的失业和通货膨胀数据进行了观察。这些计算使我们推测,失业率和通货膨胀率之间的关系存在一个普遍的模式。然而,在菲利普斯曲线中观察到的差异模式可能可以从纳入模型的局部变量的取值范围中反映出来。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Global and Local in Phillips Curve
The debate over the Phillips Curve - as the relation between level of unemployment rate and inflation rate - in historical economics is shortly reviewed. By using the analysis in the Extreme Value Theory, i.e.: the rank order statistics the unemployment and inflation data over countries from various regions are observed. The calculations brought us to conjecture that there exists the general pattern that could lead from the relation between unemployment and inflation rate. However, the difference patterns as observed in the Phillips Curve might could be reflected from the range of values of the local variables of the incorporated model.
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