运用专家技术监控铁路建设工作的执行过程

A. Polyanskiy
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摘要

本文提出了利用专家技术对铁路轨道实物施工工艺过程进行监控的抽象定理和实用方案。铁路建设作为一个复杂的动态系统,需要一定的维护资源。在这种情况下,对铁路轨道设施施工过程中的施工技术进行有效控制具有决定性的意义。通过引入铁路设施建设工程技术过程智力支持子系统,对现有的铁路建设工程技术支持体系进行完善。子系统的任务之一是有效地使用具有人工智能元素的自动化工具。由于铁路建设的随机性,在施工过程中出现偏离计划要求的情况,导致技术违规、生产率下降、人工成本增加、主要成本增加、工期增加,从而导致铁路轨道物运行特性的恶化。为了避免此类事件的发展,定期监测技术解决方案的实施是必要的。为此,开发了铁路设施建设工艺流程实施监控系统,作为铁路建设工艺流程的工程方法论形成和智力支持的一部分。监测包括三个阶段:参数登记、工艺过程实施的评估和预测。考虑到若干待解决任务的形式化特点,开发并描述了一种按时间间隔登记技术过程实施指标的方法。在评估阶段获得的结果,可以确定使用基于概率推理模型的专家系统来处理铁路设施建设过程中监测工作进度的结果的可能性。逻辑推理机制组织在基于概率贝叶斯逻辑的反馈推理系统上。工艺过程实施的预测是基于马尔可夫随机过程应用的一般方法问题。预测模型和获得预测定量特征的方法是基于对最简单的流动特性的解释,以分析其状态变化的动力学。本文在理论研究成果的基础上,以淹水铁路路基施工为例,介绍了应用专家技术对工程施工过程进行监控的实践。文章中提出的结果是在作者进行的论文研究过程中获得的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Monitoring of work execution processes in railway construction using expert technologies
The article presents the abstract theorem and practical options for monitoring the technological process of a railway track object construction using expert technologies. Railway construction as a complex dynamic system requires certain resources for its maintenance. Under these conditions, effective control over the work execution technology performed during the construction of railway track facilities is of decisive importance. This can be achieved by improving the existing engineering and technical support system for railway construction through the introduction of a subsystem for engineering and technological processes intellectual support for the railway facilities construction. One of the subsystem tasks is the effective use of automation tools with elements of artificial intelligence. The appearance of deviations from the planned requirements during the construction work execution, due to the stochastic nature of railway construction, leads to technology violations, a decrease in productivity, an increase in labor costs, prime cost, an increase in duration and, as a result, a deterioration in the railway track object operational characteristics. In order to avoid such a development of events, periodic monitoring of the technological solutions implementation is necessary. To this end, as part of the methodology formation for engineering and intellectual support of railway construction technological processes, a system for monitoring the technological processes implementation for the railway facilities construction has been developed. Monitoring includes three stages: parameters registration, assessment and forecast of the technological process implementation. Taking into account the formalization peculiarities of a number of tasks to be solved, a method for registering the indicators of the technological process implementation on a time interval was developed and described. The results obtained at the assessment stage made it possible to determine the possibilities of using an expert system built on a probabilistic inference model for processing the results of monitoring the work progress during the railway facility construction. The logical inference mechanism is organized on a system of feedback and inference based on probabilistic Bayesian logic. The forecast of the technological process implementation is based on general methodological issues of the Markov random processes application. The predictive model and the method for obtaining quantitative characteristics of the forecast are based on the interpretation of the simplest flow properties in order to analyze the dynamics of changes in its states. Based on the results of a theoretical study, the article presents the practical aspects of monitoring the work execution processes in railway construction using expert technologies on the example of the construction of a flooded railway subgrade roadbed. The results presented in the article were obtained in the course of a dissertation research carried out by the author.
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