在Kickstarter上通过估算交付时间来确定按时奖励交付项目

Thanh Tran, Kyumin Lee, Nguyen Vo, Hongkyu Choi
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引用次数: 6

摘要

在众筹平台上,人们通过从人群中筹集资金,将自己的原型想法变成真正的产品,或者投资别人的项目。在Kickstarter、Indiegogo等奖励型众筹平台中,选择准确的奖励发放时间对于创作者、支持者和平台提供商之间保持信任,以及平台提供商与用户之间的信任至关重要。根据Kickstarter的数据,35%的支持者没有及时收到奖励。不幸的是,我们对按时和延迟的奖励交付项目知之甚少,也没有事先的工作来估计奖励交付的持续时间。为了填补这一空白,在本文中,我们(i)提取揭示项目奖励潜在难度水平的新特征;(ii)建立预测模型,以确定创造者是否会按时交付项目中的所有奖励;(iii)建立一个回归模型来估计准确的奖励传递持续时间(即,生产和传递所有奖励所需的时间)。实验结果表明,我们的模型在最长奖励传递时间的前5%达到了82.5%的准确率,78.1 RMSE和0.108 NRMSE。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Identifying On-time Reward Delivery Projects with Estimating Delivery Duration on Kickstarter
In Crowdfunding platforms, people turn their prototype ideas into real products by raising money from the crowd, or invest in someone else's projects. In reward-based crowdfunding platforms such as Kickstarter and Indiegogo, selecting accurate reward delivery duration becomes crucial for creators, backers, and platform providers to keep the trust between the creators and the backers, and the trust between the platform providers and users. According to Kickstarter, 35% backers did not receive rewards on time. Unfortunately, little is known about on-time and late reward delivery projects, and there is no prior work to estimate reward delivery duration. To fill the gap, in this paper, we (i) extract novel features that reveal latent difficulty levels of project rewards; (ii) build predictive models to identify whether a creator will deliver all rewards in a project on time or not; and (iii) build a regression model to estimate accurate reward delivery duration (i.e., how long it will take to produce and deliver all the rewards). Experimental results show that our models achieve good performance -- 82.5% accuracy, 78.1 RMSE, and 0.108 NRMSE at the first 5% of the longest reward delivery duration.
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