Modeling the Dynamics of Phlebotomine Sand Fly Population

The present study aimed at estimating the size of phlebotomine sand fly population, the vector of leishmaniases, and to gauge the impact of temperature on the size of this population. To this end, a deterministic model describing the dynamics of the phlebotomine sand fly population is presented. The global stability of the sand fly free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium are proved and the basic offspring number, which represents the capacity of sand fly reproduction, is derived. Sensitivity analyses on basic offspring number and the endemic equilibrium with respect to the model parameters are carried out. The most sensitive parameters are considered, afterwards, temperature-dependent to show the influence of temperature on the population size of phlebotomine sand flies. It has been shown that the sand fly population cannot be maintained in an area when the temperature is below 15°C or when it exceeds 32°C, and the optimum temperature for reaching the high Phlebotomus papatasi population densities was found to be 28°C. This knowledge would assist decision-makers in identifying and selecting the most suitable strategies timely.