预测俄罗斯城市吸引力水平的经济和数学模型和工具开发

М. M. Nizamutdinov, V. Oreshnikov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究的主题是影响俄罗斯城市对人口、商业和旅游吸引力的因素。通过经济和数学方法进行研究的对象是人口超过10万的俄罗斯联邦城市及其社会经济发展参数。研究的目的是对俄罗斯城市吸引力变化水平进行经济和数学建模。在研究过程中,形成了一套回归方程,并进行了相应的色散分析。作为影响城市吸引力的因素,作者发现了以下几个因素:居民人数、住房、工资率、犯罪率和医疗服务密度。为了评估城市对企业的吸引力,作者研究了城市的生产量、零售额和居住在城市的人口数量。总体而言,得到的回归方程符合实际情况,可用于预测所研究指标的变化。提出了城市吸引力水平监测和预测工具的功能模块。关键是任务形成、场景创建、预测、信息分析、区域评级形成、结果可视化等模块。结论是,城市吸引力、商业吸引力和旅游吸引力模型是一个整体系统,三者相辅相成,使综合解决城市吸引力问题成为可能。当局可以利用所取得的成果来解决有关俄罗斯联邦领土综合发展的问题。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Economic and Mathematical Models and Tools Development for Forecasting the Level of Attractiveness of Russian Cities
The subject of the research is the factors influencing the attractiveness of Russian cities for the population, business and tourism. The objects of the research via economic and mathematical methods are the cities of the Russian Federation with population over 100 thousand people and the parameters of their social-economic development. The purpose of the research is economic and mathematical modeling of the attractiveness change level of Russian cities. In the course of the research a system of regressive equations has been formed, and a corresponding dispersion analysis has been conducted. As the factors influencing the attractiveness of cities for people the authors detected the following ones: the number of residents, housing, payroll rate, crime rate, and medical service density. To evaluate the attractiveness of cities for businesses the authors study the production volume, the volume of retail trade turnover, and the number of people living in the city. On the whole, the regression equations obtained meet the case and can be used henceforward with the aim of forecasting the change of indicators under study. Functional blocks of tools for monitoring and forecasting attractiveness levels of cities are proposed. The key ones are the blocks of forming the task, creating scenarios, forecasting, information analysis, regions rating forming, results visualization. It is concluded that being an integral system, models of cities’ attractiveness for people, business and tourism supplement each other and make it possible to fulfill a comprehensive approach to solving the problem. The results obtained can be used by the authorities in order to solve problems concerning integrated territorial development of the Russian Federation.
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