私人货币契约的可执行性、市场效率和技术变革

Gary B. Gorton
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引用次数: 2

摘要

在美国内战之前的一段时间里,铁路被引入并迅速传播。这也是自由银行时代(1838-1863),在此期间,一些州允许相对自由地进入银行业。所有州的银行都发行了不同的私人货币,称为银行券,这些货币在远离发行银行的二级市场上以低于面值的价格流通。本文提出了一个银行票据的定价模型,然后,使用新发现的北美所有银行每月银行票据价格数据集,研究了1838-1859年美国自由银行时代私人发行的银行票据的二级市场。为了测试这个模型,从费城到其他地方的旅行时间和成本是根据内战前的旅行者指南构建的,以衡量这一时期铁路扩散所带来的改善。结果表明,票据市场对风险进行了准确的定价。系统性的野猫银行是不可能的。票据兑付的运输成本只是票据贴现变化的一部分。银行违约风险存在差异定价,风险溢价具有周期性变化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Enforceability of Private Money Contracts, Market Efficiency, and Technological Change
The period prior to the U.S. civil War saw the introduction and rapid diffusion of the railroad. It was also the Free Banking Era (1838-1863) during which some states allowed relatively free entry into banking. Banks in all states issued distinct private monies, called bank notes, which circulated at discounts from face value in secondary markets at locations away from the issuing bank. This paper proposes a pricing model for bank notes, and then, using a newly discovered data set of monthly bank note prices for all banks in North America, studies the secondary market for privately issued bank notes during the American Free Banking Era, 1838-1859. To test the model, the durations and costs of trips from Philadelphia to other locations are constructed from pre-Civil War travelers' guides in order to measure improvements resulting from the diffusion of the railroad during this period. The results suggest that the note market accurately priced risk. Systematic wildcat banking was not possible. The transportation costs of note redemption explain only part of bank note discount variation. Bank default risk was differentially priced and such risk premia varied cyclically.
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