{"title":"中央银行的沟通与经济状况","authors":"Dmitrii Filatov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3519846","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, I use FOMC minutes transcripts from 1995 to 2019 to estimate a topic model that summarizes Central Banks communication as easily interpretable topical themes and quantifies the proportion of news attention allocated to each theme at each point in time. I then use news attention estimates and show that they accurately predict time series of the key economic state variables. Furthermore, I evidence the link between the news sentiment in FOMC announcements in the dynamic of the key economic state variables.","PeriodicalId":202820,"journal":{"name":"Organizational Communication eJournal","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Central Banks Communication and the State of the Economy\",\"authors\":\"Dmitrii Filatov\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/ssrn.3519846\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In this paper, I use FOMC minutes transcripts from 1995 to 2019 to estimate a topic model that summarizes Central Banks communication as easily interpretable topical themes and quantifies the proportion of news attention allocated to each theme at each point in time. I then use news attention estimates and show that they accurately predict time series of the key economic state variables. Furthermore, I evidence the link between the news sentiment in FOMC announcements in the dynamic of the key economic state variables.\",\"PeriodicalId\":202820,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Organizational Communication eJournal\",\"volume\":\"23 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-01-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Organizational Communication eJournal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3519846\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Organizational Communication eJournal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3519846","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Central Banks Communication and the State of the Economy
In this paper, I use FOMC minutes transcripts from 1995 to 2019 to estimate a topic model that summarizes Central Banks communication as easily interpretable topical themes and quantifies the proportion of news attention allocated to each theme at each point in time. I then use news attention estimates and show that they accurately predict time series of the key economic state variables. Furthermore, I evidence the link between the news sentiment in FOMC announcements in the dynamic of the key economic state variables.
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