The Impact of Precise Poverty Alleviation Policies on the Vulnerability of Farm Households to Poverty: Research Based on Micro Big Data

Based on the China Household Tracking Survey 4-period tracking data from 2012-2018, this paper measures the poverty vulnerability of Chinese farm households using the VEP method, and then constructs driving variables as proxy variables for precise poverty alleviation policies, measures their policy effects using fuzzy breakpoint regression, and tests the continuity and breakpoint regression validity of the driving variables, and finds that (1) in terms of time, the incidence of poverty vulnerability among Chinese farm households shows an overall decreasing trend except for a small increase in 2016, and by 2018, there are still 10.11% of farm households located in a state of vulnerability under the $1.3 poverty line; under different poverty lines, the average poverty vulnerability index shows a decreasing trend in recent years. (2) In terms of regional dimensions, the poverty vulnerability of Chinese farm households is highest in the west, followed by the central region, and lowest in the east. Compared with the east and central regions, rural residents in the west are more likely to fall into poverty in the future, and there are large differences in the depth of poverty in different regions. (3) The fuzzy breakpoint regression model found that the poverty alleviation policy significantly reduced the poverty vulnerability of rural households, and the regression results passed the continuity test of the driving variables and the breakpoint regression validity test.