Limits to Tourism? A Backcasting Scenario for Sustainable Tourism Mobility in 2050

Abstract The aim of this paper is to examine what tourism and leisure would be possible for the French under the constraint of diminishing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by a factor 4, through building a backcasting scenario. To this aim, a model of French tourist flows was constructed, split according to distance, modes of transport and a typology of behavioural patterns and calibrated for year 2000. By applying emission factors to each mode of transport the model yields GHG emissions. In a second step the drivers of tourism and leisure development were considered (demographics, the economy, security, technology, lifestyles) and their prospects for the future. These prospects were introduced into the model. It needed several iterations to obtain a picture of French tourism in 2050 that is compatible with the emissions goal and within which, what is deemed a socially acceptable level of mobility is maintained.