模糊时间序列降雨预报的盒须图法离群数据滤波

Made Doddy Adi Pranatha, N. Pramaita, M. Sudarma, I. Widyantara
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引用次数: 7

摘要

降雨预报在几个部门提供了好处。每年同月的降雨强度模式具有相似性,因此可以使用模糊时间序列建模来模拟一个地区的降雨模式,但每个月的降雨量在降雨量过高和过低(离群值)的地方存在变化值。异常值的取值会破坏误差分布,导致预测结果不佳,因此需要采用异常值搜索方法对模糊时间序列方法进行优化。本研究提出了采用盒状须图方法寻找离群数据的模型,然后将模糊时间序列方法与离群数据和省略离群数据的结果进行比较。通过MAD值的减小来更好地表示精度值,其中有离群数据的初始MAD值预测为114.39,无离群数据的预测MAD值为93.85。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Filtering Outlier Data Using Box Whisker Plot Method for Fuzzy Time Series Rainfall Forecasting
Rainfall forecasting provides benefits in several sector. The pattern of rainfall intensity in the same month every year has similarities, so that modeling of fuzzy time series can be used to model rainfall pattern in a region, but the amount of rainfall in every month has a varied value which where there is too high rainfall values and too low (outlier). The value of the outlier can damage the error distribution causing the forecasting value to be not good, so it needs an outlier search method to optimize the fuzzy time series method. In this research has prposed the model used box whisker plot method to find outlier data and then compare the result fuzzy time series method with outlier data and data with outlier that have been omitted. The accuracy value is better indicated by the decrease in MAD value where the initial MAD value forecasting with outlier data is 114.39 and the predicted MAD value forecasting without outlier data is 93.85.
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