Using Bayesian networks for diagnostic reasoning in penetrating injury assessment

Describes a method for diagnostic reasoning under uncertainty that is used in TraumaSCAN, a computer-based system for assessing penetrating trauma. Uncertainty in assessing penetrating injuries arises from two different sources: the actual extent of damage associated with a particular injury mechanism may not be easily discernable, and there may be incomplete information about patient findings (signs, symptoms and test results) which provide clues about the extent of the injury. Bayesian networks are used in TraumaSCAN for diagnostic reasoning because they provide a mathematically sound means of making probabilistic inferences about the injury in the face of uncertainty. We also present a comparison of TraumaSCAN's results in assessing 26 actual gunshot wound cases with those of TraumAID, a validated rule-based expert system for the diagnosis and treatment of penetrating trauma.