安全政策神话

Lothar Brock, A. Geis, Sabine Jaberg, H. Birckenbach, H. Ehrhart, D. Krause, M. Brzoska, H. Wulf, M. Staack, G. Neuneck, Alexander Graef, J. Scheffran, T. Ide
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引用次数: 1

摘要

自2017年以来,德国科学家联合会(VDW)的“欧洲安全与和平”研究组一直致力于研究欧洲和全球安全的核心相互关系和挑战。在这样做的过程中,它延续了世界武器理事会在合作安全与和平政策领域的传统,科学在这一领域发挥了特殊的作用。在VDW成立之初,核裁军和军备控制问题处于最前沿,这在《1957年关于核军备的哥廷根宣言》及其参与国际帕格沃什运动中得到了特别的反映。与此同时,数字化、气候变化等核军备领域也出现了新的安全风险、复杂的冲突动态和危机星座。技术-科学进步及其矛盾心理以及全球化的经济和社会进程加速了这种发展。在21世纪不断变化的条件下,以前的世界秩序(表面上的)稳定性正在瓦解;欧洲内外和平与安全面临的挑战正在增加。建立合作世界秩序的机会正在减少。民族主义强权政治正在助长一种混乱的动态,这种动态增加了爆发新的无法控制的军备竞赛的危险,削弱了处理冲突的既定形式和机构,并给可持续的欧洲和平秩序的前景蒙上了阴影。该研究小组遵循裁军审议委员会的传统,旨在通过分析、发言和事件,促进更好地了解复杂的冲突动态,并为制定适当的和平政策得出建设性结论。作为其第一个项目,该研究小组分析了一些“既定安全政策的神话”。在这里,模棱两可的术语“神话”指的是已经固化为教条的信念。他们推动的政治决策是建立在需要被质疑的前提之上的。科学的任务是批判性地质疑、解释和检验政治决策背后假设的合理性。很明显,即使是非常有问题的决策也可能源于错误的假设。广为流传的神话会阻碍通往适当的社会话语和良好政治的道路。研究小组为自己设定的目标是,将其中一些确定性视为神话,并解构它们,以打破它们,从而纠正它们。然而,具体的行动建议排在第二位。研究小组对文件草案进行了广泛的讨论,并在一定程度上引起了争议。然而,故意指向文本的责任完全在于作者。第一次交付包含以下主题的个别论文:合作的世界秩序(洛萨·布洛克),俄罗斯与欧洲和平秩序(萨宾·贾伯格),全球南方强有力的军事干预的有效性(汉斯-乔治·埃尔哈特),德国联邦武装部队的装备不足(迈克尔·布佐斯卡),军备控制的当前相关性(迈克尔·斯塔克)和气候变化对安全构成的威胁(于尔根·舍夫兰)。正在编写进一步的文件。随着“神话论文”和相关评论的发表,将展开一场科学讨论,这些论文的作者和《弗里登-沃特》的编辑希望,这将导致批判性的反思,同时也会带来更好的、有科学依据的和平与安全政策的新想法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Mythen der etablierten Sicherheitspolitik
Since 2017, the Study Group “European Security and Peace” of the Federation of German Scientists (VDW) has been working on the central interrelationships and challenges of European and global security. In doing so, it continues the VDW‘s tradition in the field of cooperative security and peace policy, in which science played a particular role. At the beginning of the VDW‘s foundation, questions of nuclear disarmament and arms control were at the forefront, which is reflected in particular in the “Gottingen Declaration of 1957 on Nuclear Armament” as well as in its participation in the international Pugwash movement. In the meantime, new security risks, complex conflict dynamics and crisis constellations have emerged alongside nuclear armament, from digitalisation to climate change. This development is accelerated by technical-scientific progress and its ambivalence as well as by economic and social processes of globalization. Under the changing conditions of the 21st century, the (apparent) stability of the previous world order is dissolving; the challenges for peace and security in and around Europe are increasing. The opportunities for a cooperative world order are dwindling. Nationalist power politics is fuelling a chaotic dynamic that increases the danger of a new uncontrollable arms race, weakens established forms and institutions for dealing with conflicts and clouds the prospect of a sustainable European peace order. Following in the tradition of the VDW, the study group aims at contributing to a better understanding of the complex conflict dynamics through analyses, statements and events and to draw constructive conclusions for an appropriate peace policy. As its first project, the study group has analytically examined some “myths of established security policy”. Here, the ambiguous term “myth” refers to beliefs that have solidified into dogmas. They promote political decisions that are based on premises that need to be problematized. It is the task of science to critically question, interpret and examine the plausibility of assumptions underlying political decisions. It is evident that even highly problematic decisions can result from faulty assumptions. Widespread myths can block the path to appropriate social discourse and good politics. The goal the study group has set itself is to address some of these certainties as myths and to deconstruct them in order to break them up and thus correct them. Specific recommendations for action, however, take second place. The draft papers were discussed extensively and in part controversially in the study group. However, the responsibility for the deliberately pointed texts lies solely with the authors. The first delivery contains individual papers on the following topics: the cooperative world order (Lothar Brock), Russia and the European peace order (Sabine Jaberg), the effectiveness of robust military interventions in the Global South (Hans-Georg Ehrhart), the inadequate equipment of the German Federal Armed Forces (Michael Brzoska), the current relevance of arms control (Michael Staack) and the threat to security posed by climate change (Jurgen Scheffran). Further papers are in preparation. With the publication of the “Myth Papers” and related comments, a scientific discussion is to be initiated which – so the authors of the papers and the editors of the Friedens-Warte hope – will lead to critical reflection, but also to new ideas for a better, scientifically informed peace and security policy.
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