Obama, Trump, and Indonesian foreign policy under Jokowi: anticlimactic bilateral relations and the perseverance of structural preeminence (2014–2021)

Abstract This paper investigates the fluctuations in Indonesian-US bilateral relations during 2014–2021, a period which encapsulated the second term of US president Barrack Obama (2013–2017), that of US President Donald Trump (2017–2021), and that of Indonesian president Jokowi Widodo (2014–Present). Two empirical puzzles are addressed: stagnant relations during Jokowi and Obama’s terms despite strong expectations to strategically evolve bilateral relations and the lull in ties during Jokowi’s and Trump’s presidencies despite the convergence of strategic interests in the region. This qualitative discourse analysis assesses the bilateral relations between 2014 and 2021 by employing three foreign policy variables: personalistic, ideational, and structural factors. The article contends that in comprehending the fluctuating ties, all three variables need to be considered, allowing us to determine which factors outweigh others in certain circumstances. This article concludes that despite the personal rapport established between Jokowi and Obama in overcoming bilateral disagreements, the Freedom of Navigation operations continued to be viewed by Jokowi and Indonesian elites as provocative maneuvers. Meanwhile, Trump’s election saw a loss of personal rapport between US and Indonesian leaders due to Trump’s apparent lack of sensitivity on vexed issues, including that toward the Muslim world, which remained an irritant to the bilateral relations.