{"title":"“十四五”期间中国能源结构与强度预测","authors":"Xing Zhang","doi":"10.18282/l-e.v10i8.3063","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Markov chain and nonlinear cubic exponential smoothing model are respectively used to predict China’s energy \nstructure and energy intensity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The results show that the proportion of coal in China during \nthe 14th Five-year Plan period will decrease from 56.5% in 2020 to 51.7% in 2025. The share of non-fossil energy consumption \nwill rise from 16.1% in 2020 to 19.1% in 2025. Compared with 2020, the energy intensity of the three industries will decrease by \n18%, 13% and 18% respectively. Based on the prediction results, the energy structure modulating and optimization is analyzed \nand some suggestions are put forward.","PeriodicalId":199440,"journal":{"name":"Learning & Education","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Energy Structure and Intensity Prediction During the 14th Five-Year Plan in China\",\"authors\":\"Xing Zhang\",\"doi\":\"10.18282/l-e.v10i8.3063\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Markov chain and nonlinear cubic exponential smoothing model are respectively used to predict China’s energy \\nstructure and energy intensity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The results show that the proportion of coal in China during \\nthe 14th Five-year Plan period will decrease from 56.5% in 2020 to 51.7% in 2025. The share of non-fossil energy consumption \\nwill rise from 16.1% in 2020 to 19.1% in 2025. Compared with 2020, the energy intensity of the three industries will decrease by \\n18%, 13% and 18% respectively. Based on the prediction results, the energy structure modulating and optimization is analyzed \\nand some suggestions are put forward.\",\"PeriodicalId\":199440,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Learning & Education\",\"volume\":\"49 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-06-20\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Learning & Education\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.18282/l-e.v10i8.3063\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Learning & Education","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.18282/l-e.v10i8.3063","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Energy Structure and Intensity Prediction During the 14th Five-Year Plan in China
Markov chain and nonlinear cubic exponential smoothing model are respectively used to predict China’s energy
structure and energy intensity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The results show that the proportion of coal in China during
the 14th Five-year Plan period will decrease from 56.5% in 2020 to 51.7% in 2025. The share of non-fossil energy consumption
will rise from 16.1% in 2020 to 19.1% in 2025. Compared with 2020, the energy intensity of the three industries will decrease by
18%, 13% and 18% respectively. Based on the prediction results, the energy structure modulating and optimization is analyzed
and some suggestions are put forward.
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