用技术预测来把握时机

A. S. Rao
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引用次数: 0

摘要

产品生命周期钟形曲线没有准备好企业预测产品销售的自由落体,这一现象日益普遍。以军事游戏为先驱的技术预测技术已经进入了公司董事会。管理者需要工具来了解竞争对手将要做什么,也被称为预知,而不是竞争对手已经做了什么。成功的预测传达了力量,但全面的预测是不可获得的,最好的品种必须满足于预测。预测之所以在20世纪蓬勃发展,是因为它试图为投资者、企业和政府提供决策工具。后来,批判性期货研究(Critical Futures Studies, CFS)兴起了情景构建理论。预测是对未知的未来进行控制和确定的一种尝试。情景是在前瞻性视野中探索多样性的一种尝试。起点是环境扫描;我们所有的扫描都是通过感知过滤器进行的。这一切都与过滤器、心态和世界观有关。我们倾向于看到我们期望看到的东西,所以任何有助于扩展我们感知的框架都将帮助我们更加适应外面的世界。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Timing it Right with Technology Forecasting
Bell curve of product life cycle has not prepared firms to forecast free fall of product sales, increasingly common phenomena. Technology forecasting techniques pioneered as military games have come to corporate board room. Managers need tools to learn what a competitor will do, also known as foreknowledge, not what the competitor has done. Successful prediction conveys power but full scale foreknowledge is not available, the best of the breed has to settle for foresight. Forecasting flourished in the twentieth century because it attempted to provide investors, corporations and governments with tools for making decisions. Later, Critical Futures Studies (CFS) gave rise to ascendancy of scenario building. Forecasting was an attempt to assert control and a measure of certainty over an unknown future. Scenarios are an attempt to explore diversity within the forward view. Starting point is environment scanning; all of our scanning is undertaken through perceptual filters. It is all about filters, mindsets and world views. We tend to see what we expect to see, so any framework which helps to expand our perceptions will help us to become more attuned to more of the world out there.
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