{"title":"全球COVID-19趋势预测","authors":"Feng-Xian Wei, Jin-Jiang Wang, Xianming Xu, JianZhao Gao, Boling Wang, Chiyu Ma, Zhihang Peng, Zhen Jin, Senzhong Huang","doi":"10.3784/J.ISSN.1003-9961.2020.06.004","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ObjectiveWe give projections of the COVID-19 epidemic course worldwide. MethodsBased on a generic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered/removed) model which incorporates the main epidemiological parameters and control efficacy into it, we construct thereby the webapp EpiSIX and use it to forecast the possible tendency of the epidemic course of COVID-19. ResultsIdeally, the epidemic course worldwide would be stopped by the end of September 2020, with outcomes of 7.0 million diagnosed cases worldwide and 2.5 million diagnosed cases in the USA (currently 5.4 million worldwide and 1.67 million in USA). ConclusionWe make a Warning: Predicted only for the first wave. Be careful with the emerging of second wave.","PeriodicalId":400762,"journal":{"name":"Disease Surveillance","volume":"72 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"3","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Tendency prediction of COVID-19 worldwide\",\"authors\":\"Feng-Xian Wei, Jin-Jiang Wang, Xianming Xu, JianZhao Gao, Boling Wang, Chiyu Ma, Zhihang Peng, Zhen Jin, Senzhong Huang\",\"doi\":\"10.3784/J.ISSN.1003-9961.2020.06.004\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"ObjectiveWe give projections of the COVID-19 epidemic course worldwide. MethodsBased on a generic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered/removed) model which incorporates the main epidemiological parameters and control efficacy into it, we construct thereby the webapp EpiSIX and use it to forecast the possible tendency of the epidemic course of COVID-19. ResultsIdeally, the epidemic course worldwide would be stopped by the end of September 2020, with outcomes of 7.0 million diagnosed cases worldwide and 2.5 million diagnosed cases in the USA (currently 5.4 million worldwide and 1.67 million in USA). ConclusionWe make a Warning: Predicted only for the first wave. Be careful with the emerging of second wave.\",\"PeriodicalId\":400762,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Disease Surveillance\",\"volume\":\"72 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-06-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"3\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Disease Surveillance\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3784/J.ISSN.1003-9961.2020.06.004\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Disease Surveillance","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3784/J.ISSN.1003-9961.2020.06.004","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
ObjectiveWe give projections of the COVID-19 epidemic course worldwide. MethodsBased on a generic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered/removed) model which incorporates the main epidemiological parameters and control efficacy into it, we construct thereby the webapp EpiSIX and use it to forecast the possible tendency of the epidemic course of COVID-19. ResultsIdeally, the epidemic course worldwide would be stopped by the end of September 2020, with outcomes of 7.0 million diagnosed cases worldwide and 2.5 million diagnosed cases in the USA (currently 5.4 million worldwide and 1.67 million in USA). ConclusionWe make a Warning: Predicted only for the first wave. Be careful with the emerging of second wave.
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